About

Ahead of the Curve provides analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity, and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher, having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests include capital markets, banking, investment analysis, and portfolio management, and he has over 20 years of experience in the above areas, covering the US and Indian markets. He has several publications in the above areas. He currently teaches business and management students at CHRIST University. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

Featured post

Time Series Analysis with GRETL

This video shows key time-series analyses techniques such as ARIMA, Granger Causality, Co-integration, and VECM performed via GRETL. Key dia...

Sunday, 9 August 2015

Stock Market Signals for the US S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning August 10

dow jones
Indicator
Weekly Level / Change / Significance
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2078, -1.25%
Bearish
Bearish
Nifty
8565, 0.37%
Neutral**
Neutral
China Shanghai Index
3744, 2.20%
Bullish
Bullish
Gold
1093, -0.16%
Neutral
Neutral
WTIC Crude
43.75, -6.46%
Bearish
Bearish
Copper
2.33, -1.21%
Bearish
Bearish
Baltic Dry Index
1200, 6.10%
Bullish
Bullish
Euro
1.0973, -0.09%
Neutral
Neutral
Dollar/Yen
124.21, 0.23%
Neutral
Neutral
Dow Transports
8251, -1.68%
Bearish
Bearish
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.18%, -1.36%
Bullish
Bullish
Nyse Summation Index
-339, 0.03%
Neutral
Neutral
US Vix
13.39, 10.48%
Bearish
Bearish
20 DMA, S and P 500
2102, Below
Bearish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2096, Below
Bearish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2073, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
8517, Above
Neutral
Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty
8362, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty
8435, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India Vix
14.91, 2.33%
Neutral
Bearish
Dollar/Rupee
63.71, -0.43%
Neutral
Neutral




Overall
 S & P 500
Nifty

Bullish Indications
4
6

Bearish Indications
7
6

Outlook
Bearish
Neutral

Observation
The Sand P 500 sold off last week while the Nifty out performed slightly. Indicators are bearish.
The Vix is indicating complacency.  Market cycles are not favorable into mid August, so I am looking more downside.


On the Horizon
China loan data, Euro zone sentiment ZEW survey, US advance retail sales, German and Euro zone GDP, US U. Michigan consumer confidence






*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Index


Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, Dailyfx


**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral


Hottest Deals On Refurbished Apple Products | JemJem
Signals are bearish for the upcoming week and market cycles are unfavorable into mid August so I am looking for more downside. You can check out last weeks report for a comparison. You can also check out snapshots of the S and P 500 and Nifty Indices.

Wednesday, 5 August 2015

Bear Market ETF's to Consider for 2017 and Beyond

Sunday, 2 August 2015

Stock Market Signals for the US S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning August 3

dow jones
Indicator
Weekly Level / Change / Significance
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2104, 1.16%
Bullish
Bullish
Nifty
8533, 0.13%
Neutral**
Neutral
China Shanghai Index
3664, -10.00%
Bearish
Bearish
Gold
1095, -0.31%
Neutral
Neutral
WTIC Crude
46.77, -2.48%
Bearish
Bearish
Copper
2.35, -1.51%
Bearish
Bearish
Baltic Dry Index
1131, 4.14%
Bullish
Bullish
Euro
1.0983, 0.08%
Neutral
Neutral
Dollar/Yen
123.92, 0.13%
Neutral
Neutral
Dow Transports
8392, 3.96%
Bullish
Bullish
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.21%, -2.91%
Bullish
Bullish
Nyse Summation Index
-339, -20.07%
Bearish
Neutral
US Vix
12.12, -11.79%
Bullish
Bullish
20 DMA, S and P 500
2096, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2099, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2068, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
8482, Above
Neutral
Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty
8343, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty
8418, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India Vix
14.57, -5.74%
Neutral
Bullish
Dollar/Rupee
63.98, -0.19%
Neutral
Neutral




Overall
 S & P 500
Nifty

Bullish Indications
8
9

Bearish Indications
4
3

Outlook
Bullish
Bullish

Observation
The Sand P 500 rallied last week while the Nifty under performed. Indicators are bullish.
The Vix is indicating complacency.  Market cycles are not favorable into mid August, so I am looking for a top in the upcoming bounce.


On the Horizon
US Personal Consumption & ISM data, AUS, UK & India rate decisions, AUS, NZ, Canada and US employment data






*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Index


Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, Dailyfx


**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral


Hottest Deals On Refurbished Apple Products | JemJem
 Lot of whipsaws off late. Signals are bullish for the upcoming week but market cycles are unfavorable into mid August so I will look for a top in the upcoming bounce. You can check out last weeks report for a comparison. You can also check out snapshots of the S and P 500 and Nifty Indices.

World Indices


Live World Indices are powered by Investing.com

Market Insight

My Favorite Books

  • The Intelligent Investor
  • Liars Poker
  • One up on Wall Street
  • Beating the Street
  • Remniscience of a stock operator

See Our Pins

Trading Ideas

Forex Insight

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar >> Add to your site

India Market Insight

My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)

Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.