About

Ahead of the Curve provides analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity, and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher, having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests include capital markets, banking, investment analysis, and portfolio management, and he has over 20 years of experience in the above areas, covering the US and Indian markets. He has several publications in the above areas. He currently teaches business and management students at CHRIST University. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

Featured post

Time Series Analysis with GRETL

This video shows key time-series analyses techniques such as ARIMA, Granger Causality, Co-integration, and VECM performed via GRETL. Key dia...

Wednesday, 29 April 2015

Strangle Strategy for a Volatile Nifty Post the Fed Announcement Tonight

Volatility in the market has been surging of late with the India Vix eclipsing the 20 level of late. I expect this to continue post the fed. A strangle can help capture market volatility on either side.

Nifty Current Spot: 8280
CNX NIFTY (^NSEI)
8300 April Call - 35
8200 April put -19
Break even = 54
Break even points -8354, 8146
You make money on either side of 8146, 8354
You loose money if market stays between the above two levels.

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Tuesday, 28 April 2015

Market Pulse Option Interest: Option Open Interest for 28-04-2015

Great Summary of F&O data, Market Pulse Option Interest: Option Open Interest for 28-04-2015: Inference The Index opened flat and stayed positive but saw a few dips towards 8200 which were bought with ease and a final short...
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Trending Waves : Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - April 27

US market technicals from trending waves. Trending Waves : Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - April 27: The market made another all time high today as expected but the wave fell couple of points short of the ascending trian...
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My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)

Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.