About

Ahead of the Curve provides analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity, and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher, having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests include capital markets, banking, investment analysis, and portfolio management, and he has over 20 years of experience in the above areas, covering the US and Indian markets. He has several publications in the above areas. He currently teaches business and management students at CHRIST University. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

Sunday, 22 March 2015

Baltic Dry Index still near life lows

Check out this chart from StockCharts.com for the baltic dry index, which is close to its life lows and down over 95% from the highs set in 2008. Obviously the massive influx of liquidity form QE's in the US, Europe and Japan hasn't really helped the global economy.

Visit StockCharts.com to see more great charts.

Visit StockCharts.com to see more great charts.

Monday, 16 March 2015

Behind the tantrums of QE withdrawal lies a very grave deflationary threat

Last week most risk assets sold of on the prospects of QE withdrawal following strong job numbers out of the U.S. Here's how things shaped up:
The S & P 500 was down well over 1%
Gold was down close to 1%
Oil was down close to 10%
Copper was up about 2.5%
Emerging markets were down close to 3%
The clear winner was the dollar which surged nearly 2%

If markets were really bothered about inflation, gold and oil would be going through the roof instead they have absolutely collapsed over the past year:
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)

In addition the flight to quality trade that surfaced during the recession of 2008 into the dollar seems to have emerged with a vengeance:
PowerShares DB US Dollar Bullish ETF (UUP)

PowerShares DB US Dollar Bullish ETF (UUP)

While one may want to brush aside the emergence of deflation which has already started to surface in recent PPI and CPI numbers, let's not forget what it did to Japan since the early 90's. Despite the all out war to contain deflation in Japan interest rates are still negative and the stock market which has rallied off late is still down over 50% from the highs it set in 1989.

Friday, 13 March 2015

My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)

Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively #overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese #yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.

Asset Allocation Strategy - Indian Market http://t.co/BIh2Q4yhuw pic.twitter.com/mJO6DInazm
— samuelR (@RajveerRawlin) September 6, 2015

Rajveer

I have been tracking capital markets across the globe since 1993, I write about financial markets and teach business and management students financial markets and investing at CHRIST University.

My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)

Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.