Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning March 30

Indicator	Weekly Level / Change	Implication for S & P 500	Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500	2542, 10.26%	Bullish	Bullish
Nifty	8660, -0.97%	Neutral **	Bearish
China Shanghai Index	2772, 0.97%	Bullish	Bullish
Gold	1631, 9.83%	Bullish	Bullish
WTIC Crude	21.84, -2.63%	Bearish	Bearish
Copper	2.17, 0.02%	Neutral	Neutral
Baltic Dry Index	556, -11.04%	Bearish	Bearish
Euro	1.1143, 4.19%	Bullish	Bullish
Dollar/Yen	107.94, -2.59%	Bearish	Bearish
Dow Transports	7699, 12.60%	Bullish	Bullish
High Yield (Bond)	94.38, 9.57%	Bullish	Bullish
US 10 year Bond Yield	0.68%, -14.74%	Bullish	Bullish
Nyse Summation Index	-1120, 5.32%	Bullish	Neutral
US Vix	65.54, -0.70%	Bullish	Bullish
Skew	117	Neutral	Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500	2657, Below	Bearish	Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500	3033, Below	Bearish	Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500	3030, Below	Bearish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	9613, Below	Neutral	Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty	11081, Below	Neutral	Bearish
200 DMA, Nifty	11483, Below	Neutral	Bearish
S & P 500 P/E	19.12	Neutral	Neutral
Nifty P/E	19.52	Neutral	Neutral
India Vix	70.39, 4.90%	Neutral	Bearish
Dollar/Rupee	75.48, 0.10%	Neutral	Neutral
Overall	S & P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	9	8
Bearish Indications	6	8
Outlook	Bullish	Neutral
Observation	The S and P 500 was up and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are mixed for the week. The markets have begun a great depression style collapse. Watch those stops.
On the Horizon	US – Employment data, UK – GDP, Eurozone – German employment data, CPI, India – RBI rate decision
*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Courtesy Stock charts, investing.com, multpl.com, NSE
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

The S and P rebounded and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are mixed for the coming week. The rally in the S & P is likely to extend to 2740 following which it could crash to 1800. Long term, the epic meltdown is set to continue resulting in a 5 year plus bear market. QE forever from the FED is about to trigger the deflationary collapse of the century and we have made a major top in global equity markets. The market is looking like the short of a life time with non-conformations from the transports, other global indices and commodities. Insane valuations continue. The breakdown in Crude and the Euro was a precursor to a massive drop in the S and P 500. The recent global virus epidemic (black swan) is likely to dent global GDP significantly and usher in a recession much faster than most think. The trend has changed from bullish to bearish and the markets are getting smashed by a strong dollar. Looking for significant under performance in the Nifty going forward on rapidly deteriorating macros. A 5 year deflationary wave has started in key asset classes like the Euro, stocks and commodities. We are entering a multi-year great depression. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. Tail risk has been very high off late as the yield curve inverts into a recession. The critical levels to watch for the week are 2555 (up) and 2530 (down) on the S & P 500 and 8750 (up) and 8600 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning March 23

Indicator	Weekly Level / Change	Implication for S & P 500	Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500	2305, -14.98%	Bearish	Bearish
Nifty	8746, -12.15%	Neutral **	Bearish
China Shanghai Index	2746, -4.91%	Bearish	Bearish
Gold	1501, -1.03%	Bearish	Bearish
WTIC Crude	23.66, -25.43%	Bearish	Bearish
Copper	2.15, -13.02%	Bearish	Bearish
Baltic Dry Index	625, -0.79%	Bearish	Bearish
Euro	1.0695, -3.70%	Bearish	Bearish
Dollar/Yen	110.82, 2.68%	Bullish	Bullish
Dow Transports	6838, -13.88%	Bearish	Bearish
High Yield (Bond)	86.14, -13.15%	Bearish	Bearish
US 10 year Bond Yield	0.94%, -16.18%	Bullish	Bullish
Nyse Summation Index	-1183, -4.53%	Bearish	Neutral
US Vix	66.04, 14.20%	Bearish	Bearish
Skew	118	Neutral	Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500	2811, Below	Bearish	Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500	3114, Below	Bearish	Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500	3040, Below	Bearish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	10513, Below	Neutral	Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty	11490, Below	Neutral	Bearish
200 DMA, Nifty	11577, Below	Neutral	Bearish
S & P 500 P/E	17.34	Neutral	Neutral
Nifty P/E	19.72	Neutral	Neutral
India Vix	67.10, 30.36%	Neutral	Bearish
Dollar/Rupee	75.40, 2.11%	Neutral	Bearish
Overall	S & P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	2	2
Bearish Indications	15	16
Outlook	Bearish	Bearish
Observation	The S and P 500 and the Nifty crashed last week. Indicators are bearish for the week. The markets are on the verge of a great depression style collapse. Watch those stops.
On the Horizon	US – GDP, UK – CPI, BOE rate decision
*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Courtesy Stock charts, investing.com, multpl.com, NSE
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

The S and P and the Nifty collapsed last week. Indicators are bearish for the coming week. A rally in the S & P is likely soon following the washout though downside risks could push it to 2100. Long term, the epic meltdown is set to continue resulting in a 5 year plus bear market. QE forever from the FED is about to trigger the deflationary collapse of the century and we have made a major top in global equity markets. The market is looking like the short of a life time with non-conformations from the transports, other global indices and commodities. Insane valuations continue. The breakdown in Crude and the Euro was a precursor to a massive drop in the S and P 500. The recent global virus epidemic (black swan) is likely to dent global GDP significantly and usher in a recession much faster than most think. The trend has changed from bullish to bearish and the markets are getting smashed by a strong dollar. Looking for significant under performance in the Nifty going forward on rapidly deteriorating macros. A 5 year deflationary wave has started in key asset classes like the Euro, stocks and commodities amidst a number of bearish divergences and over stretched valuations. We are on the verge of a multi-year great depression. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. Tail risk has been very high off late as the yield curve inverts into a recession. The critical levels to watch for the week are 2320 (up) and 2290 (down) on the S & P 500 and 8850 (up) and 8650 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.