Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning October 01

Indicator	Weekly Level / Change	Implication for S & P 500	Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500	2914, -0.54%	Bearish	Bearish
Nifty	10931, -1.91%	Neutral **	Bearish
China Shanghai Index	2821, 0.85%	Bullish	Bullish
Gold	1196, -0.42%	Neutral	Neutral
WTIC Crude	73.25, 3.49%	Bullish	Bullish
Copper	2.81, -1.84%	Bearish	Bearish
Baltic Dry Index	1540, 8.99%	Bullish	Bullish
Euro	1.1596, -1.41%	Bearish	Bearish
Dollar/Yen	113.65, 0.98%	Bullish	Bullish
Dow Transports	11379, -1.33%	Bearish	Bearish
High Yield (ETF)	36.05, 0.19%	Neutral	Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield	3.06%, -0.39%	Neutral	Neutral
Nyse Summation Index	227, -36.85%	Bearish	Neutral
US Vix	12.12, 3.77%	Bearish	Bearish
Skew	144	Bearish	Bearish
20 DMA, S and P 500	2902, Above	Bullish	Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500	2868, Above	Bullish	Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500	2757, Above	Bullish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	11335, Below	Neutral	Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty	11345, Below	Neutral	Bearish
200 DMA, Nifty	10771, Above	Neutral	Bullish
India Vix	17.00, 9.40%	Neutral	Bearish
Dollar/Rupee	72.50, 0.41%	Neutral	Neutral
Overall	S & P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	7	5
Bearish Indications	7	9
Outlook	Neutral	Bearish
Observation	The S and P 500 and the Nifty were down last week. Indicators are mixed. The markets are likely topping out. Watch those stops.
On the Horizon	Australia – RBA rate decision, Canada – Employment data, US – Employment data, India – RBI rate decision
*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

The S and P 500 and the Nifty were down last week. Indicators are mixed for the upcoming week. Looking for significant under performance in the Nifty going forward on rapidly deteriorating macros. This rally is close to another major top in key asset classes which has already formed in the Euro and commodities amidst a number of bearish divergences. This is going to be followed by a massive selloff and most likely a deflationary collapse. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced in fully. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. Tail risk is also very high. The critical levels to watch for the week are 2925 (up) and 2905 (down) on the S & P 500 and 11000 (up) and 10850 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning September 24

Indicator	Weekly Level / Change	Implication for S & P 500	Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500	2930, 0.85%	Bullish	Bullish
Nifty	11143, -3.23%	Neutral **	Bearish
China Shanghai Index	2798, 4.32%	Bullish	Bullish
Gold	1201, 0.02%	Neutral	Neutral
WTIC Crude	70.78, 2.59%	Bullish	Bullish
Copper	2.86, 7.99%	Bullish	Bullish
Baltic Dry Index	1413, 3.44%	Bullish	Bullish
Euro	1.1762, 1.19%	Bullish	Bullish
Dollar/Yen	112.54, 0.49%	Neutral	Neutral
Dow Transports	11533, -0.33%	Neutral	Neutral
High Yield (ETF)	35.98, -0.11%	Neutral	Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield	3.07%, 2.47%	Bearish	Bearish
Nyse Summation Index	359, -15.40%	Bearish	Neutral
US Vix	11.68, -3.23%	Bullish	Bullish
Skew	142	Bearish	Bearish
20 DMA, S and P 500	2897, Above	Bullish	Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500	2857, Above	Bullish	Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500	2750, Above	Bullish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	11499, Below	Neutral	Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty	11342, Below	Neutral	Bearish
200 DMA, Nifty	10749, Above	Neutral	Bullish
India Vix	15.53, 12.23%	Neutral	Bearish
Dollar/Rupee	72.20, 0.21%	Neutral	Neutral
Overall	S & P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	10	7
Bearish Indications	3	6
Outlook	Bullish	Bullish
Observation	The S and P 500 was up and the Nifty was down last week. Indicators are bullish. The markets are likely topping out. Watch those stops.
On the Horizon	New Zealand – RBNZ rate decision, Euro Zone – German employment data, CPI, UK – GDP, Canada – GDP, US – FOMC rate decision
*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

The S and P 500 was up and the Nifty was significantly down last week. Indicators are bullish for the upcoming week. Looking for significant under performance in the Nifty going forward on rapidly deteriorating macros. This rally is close to another major top in key asset classes which has already formed in the Euro and commodities. This is going to be followed by a massive selloff and most likely a deflationary collapse. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced in fully. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. Tail risk is also very high. The critical levels to watch for the week are 2940 (up) and 2920 (down) on the S & P 500 and 11250 (up) and 11050 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.