Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning December 31

Indicator	Weekly Level / Change	Implication for S & P 500	Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500	2486, 2.86%	Bullish	Bullish
Nifty	10860, 0.98%	Neutral **	Bullish
China Shanghai Index	2494, -0.89%	Bearish	Bearish
Gold	1283, 1.98%	Bullish	Bullish
WTIC Crude	45.33, -0.57%	Bearish	Bearish
Copper	2.68, 0.28%	Neutral	Neutral
Baltic Dry Index	1271, -0.63%	Bearish	Bearish
Euro	1.1437, 0.24%	Neutral	Neutral
Dollar/Yen	110.21, -0.99%	Bearish	Bearish
Dow Transports	9109, 2.64%	Bullish	Bullish
High Yield (ETF)	33.54, 1.02%	Bullish	Bullish
US 10 year Bond Yield	2.74%, -2.01%	Bullish	Bullish
Nyse Summation Index	-1083, -23.44%	Bearish	Neutral
US Vix	28.34, -5.88%	Bullish	Bullish
Skew	117	Neutral	Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500	2589, Below	Bearish	Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500	2667, Below	Bearish	Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500	2747, Below	Bearish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	10779, Above	Neutral	Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty	10575, Above	Neutral	Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty	10767, Above	Neutral	Bullish
India Vix	15.27, -4.52%	Neutral	Bullish
Dollar/Rupee	69.70, -0.75%	Neutral	Bullish
Overall	S & P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	6	12
Bearish Indications	8	4
Outlook	Bearish	Bullish
Observation	The S and P 500 and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are mixed for the week. The markets are on the verge of a great depression style collapse. Watch those stops.
On the Horizon	US – Employment data, Euro Zone – German Employment data, CPI
*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

The S and P 500 and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are bearish for the upcoming week. The market got its oversold bounce of about a 100 points but a 5 year bear market is in the making. The trend is changing from bullish to bearish. Looking for significant under performance in the Nifty going forward on rapidly deteriorating macros. The India vix is half the US vix suggesting there may be a sudden catch up on the downside for the Indian market in 2019. A 5 year deflationary wave is about to start in key asset classes like the Euro, stocks and commodities amidst a number of bearish divergences and Hindenburg omens. We are on the verge of a multi-year great depression. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced in fully. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. Tail risk has been very high off late. The critical levels to watch for the week are 2500 (up) and 2475 (down) on the S & P 500 and 10950 (up) and 10750 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback and a happy new year.

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning December 24

Indicator	Weekly Level / Change	Implication for S & P 500	Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500	2417, -7.05%	Bearish	Bearish
Nifty	10754, -0.48%	Neutral **	Neutral
China Shanghai Index	2516, -2.99%	Bearish	Bearish
Gold	1258, 1.35%	Bullish	Bullish
WTIC Crude	45.59, -10.96%	Bearish	Bearish
Copper	2.67, -3.20%	Bearish	Bearish
Baltic Dry Index	1279, -8.71%	Bearish	Bearish
Euro	1.1410, 0.90%	Bullish	Bullish
Dollar/Yen	111.31, -1.82%	Bearish	Bearish
Dow Transports	8875, -6.72%	Bearish	Bearish
High Yield (ETF)	33.20, -3.42%	Bullish	Bullish
US 10 year Bond Yield	2.79%, -3.42%	Bullish	Bullish
Nyse Summation Index	-877, -80.24%	Bearish	Neutral
US Vix	30.11, 39.20%	Bearish	Bearish
Skew	122	Neutral	Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500	2635, Below	Bearish	Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500	2692, Below	Bearish	Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500	2754, Below	Bearish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	10773, Below	Neutral	Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty	10575, Above	Neutral	Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty	10761, Below	Neutral	Bearish
India Vix	15.99, 5.51%	Neutral	Bearish
Dollar/Rupee	70.22, -2.42%	Neutral	Bullish
Overall	S & P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	4	6
Bearish Indications	12	11
Outlook	Bearish	Bearish
Observation	The S and P 500 and the Nifty fell. Indicators are bearish for the week. The markets are on the verge of a great depression. Watch those stops.
On the Horizon	US – Powell speech
*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

The S and P 500 and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are bearish for the upcoming week. The market is oversold and may bounce a 100 points but a 5 year bear market is in the making. The trend is changing from bullish to bearish. Looking for significant under performance in the Nifty going forward on rapidly deteriorating macros. A 5 year deflationary wave is about to start in key asset classes like the Euro, stocks and commodities amidst a number of bearish divergences and Hindenburg omens. We are on the verge of a multi-year great depression. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced in fully. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. Tail risk has been very high off late. The critical levels to watch for the week are 2430 (up) and 2400 (down) on the S & P 500 and 10850 (up) and 10650 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.