Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning January 01

Indicator	Weekly Level / Change	Implication for S & P 500	Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500	2674, -0.36%	Neutral	Neutral
Nifty	10531, 0.36%	Neutral **	Neutral
China Shanghai Index	3307, 0.31%	Neutral	Neutral
Gold	1309, 2.39%	Bullish	Bullish
WTIC Crude	60.42, 3.34%	Bullish	Bullish
Copper	3.30, 1.91%	Bullish	Bullish
Baltic Dry Index	1366, -4.48%	Bearish	Bearish
Euro	1.2005, 1.20%	Bullish	Bullish
Dollar/Yen	112.66, -0.55%	Bearish	Bearish
Dow Transports	10612, -0.59%	Bearish	Bearish
High Yield (ETF)	36.72, 0.25%	Neutral	Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield	2.41%, -3.22%	Bullish	Bullish
Nyse Summation Index	559, 8.38%	Neutral	Bullish
US Vix	11.04, 11.52%	Bearish	Bearish
Skew	137	Neutral	Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500	2664, Above	Bullish	Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500	2617, Above	Bullish	Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500	2482, Above	Bullish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	10322, Above	Neutral	Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty	10316, Above	Neutral	Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty	9818, Above	Neutral	Bullish
India Vix	12.67, 9.34%	Neutral	Bearish
Dollar/Rupee	63.83, -0.27%	Neutral	Neutral
Overall	S & P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	8	9
Bearish Indications	4	5
Outlook	Bullish	Bullish
Observation	The S and P 500 and the Nifty were relatively unchanged last week. Indicators are bullish. The market is topping. Time to watch those stops.
On the Horizon	China – PMI’s, Euro Zone –German PMI, German employment data, CPI, UK – PMI’s, U.S – ISM PMI’s, FOMC minutes, Oil inventories, Employment data,  Canada – PMI
*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

The S and P 500 and the Nifty were unchanged last week. Signals are bullish for the upcoming week. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced in and sentiment indicators are back in complacency mode. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. The critical levels to watch are 2685 (up) and 2665(down) on the S & P and 10600 (up) and 10450 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning December 25

Indicator	Weekly Level / Change	Implication for S & P 500	Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500	2683, 0.28%	Neutral	Neutral
Nifty	10493, 1.55%	Neutral **	Bullish
China Shanghai Index	3297, 0.95%	Bullish	Bullish
Gold	1279, 1.69%	Bullish	Bullish
WTIC Crude	58.47, 1.99%	Bullish	Bullish
Copper	3.24, 3.32%	Bullish	Bullish
Baltic Dry Index	1430, -14.27%	Bearish	Bearish
Euro	1.1862, 0.96%	Bullish	Bullish
Dollar/Yen	113.29, 0.61%	Bullish	Bullish
Dow Transports	10675, 2.71%	Neutral	Neutral
High Yield (ETF)	36.63, 0.25%	Neutral	Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield	2.49%, 5.52%	Bearish	Bearish
Nyse Summation Index	516, 6.61%	Neutral	Bullish
US Vix	9.90, 5.10%	Bearish	Bearish
Skew	134	Neutral	Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500	2653, Above	Bullish	Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500	2607, Above	Bullish	Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500	2476, Above	Bullish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	10289, Above	Neutral	Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty	10292, Above	Neutral	Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty	9786, Above	Neutral	Bullish
India Vix	11.59, -22.44%	Neutral	Bullish
Dollar/Rupee	64.00, -0.08%	Neutral	Neutral
Overall	S & P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	9	12
Bearish Indications	3	3
Outlook	Bullish	Bullish
Observation	The S and P 500 and the Nifty made new highs last week. Indicators are bullish. The market is topping. Time to watch those stops.
On the Horizon	U.S – Consumer confidence, Home sales, Oil inventories
*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

The S and P 500 and the Nifty made new highs last week. Signals are bullish for the upcoming week. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced in and sentiment indicators are back in complacency mode. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. The critical levels to watch are 2695 (up) and 2670(down) on the S & P and 10600 (up) and 10400 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.