About

Ahead of the Curve provides analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity, and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher, having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests include capital markets, banking, investment analysis, and portfolio management, and he has over 20 years of experience in the above areas, covering the US and Indian markets. He has several publications in the above areas. He currently teaches business and management students at CHRIST University. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Friday, 24 February 2017

Financial Markets - The Calm before the Storm

Global financial markets took a battering in 2022. Despite this volatility remains quite low despite making higher lows and higher highs throughout the year. The Indian market was an out-performer, but Gann fans are signaling a trend change both for the Index and Indian market volatility. Will complacency kill the cat in 2023?

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Economic Calendar

GMT-4		Event	Actual	Consensus
Thursday, Aug 14
02:00	UK	Gross Domestic Product (YoY)	1.2%	1.0%
02:00	UK	Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)	0.3%	0.1%
02:30	CH	Producer and Import Prices (YoY)	-0.9%
02:30	CH	Producer and Import Prices (MoM)	-0.2%	0.0%
05:10	US	Fed's Daly speech
n/a	UK	NIESR GDP Estimate (3M)
08:30	US	Producer Price Index (MoM)		0.2%
08:30	US	Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY)		2.9%
08:30	US	Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM)		0.2%
08:30	US	Producer Price Index (YoY)		2.5%

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My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)

Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.