About

Ahead of the Curve provides analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity, and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher, having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests include capital markets, banking, investment analysis, and portfolio management, and he has over 20 years of experience in the above areas, covering the US and Indian markets. He has several publications in the above areas. He currently teaches business and management students at CHRIST University. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

Thursday, 31 August 2017

Daily Market Insight

Here is your daily insight from global financial markets. Today's post is an aggregate of interesting news and views form the Stock, FOREX and Commodity markets and the Economy:
Daily Market Insight

Wednesday, 30 August 2017

Daily Market Insight

Here is your daily insight from global financial markets. Today's post is an aggregate of interesting news and views form the Stock, FOREX and Commodity markets and the Economy:
Daily Market Insight

Tuesday, 29 August 2017

Daily Market Insight

Here is your daily insight from global financial markets. Today's post is an aggregate of interesting news and views form the Stock, FOREX and Commodity markets and the Economy:
Daily Market Insight

Monday, 28 August 2017

Daily Market Insight

Here is your daily insight from global financial markets. Today's post is an aggregate of interesting news and views form the Stock, FOREX and Commodity markets and the Economy:
Daily Market Insight

Sunday, 27 August 2017

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning August 28

Indicator	Weekly Level / Change	Implication for S & P 500	Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500	2443, 0.72%	Bullish	Bullish
Nifty	9857, 0.20%	Neutral **	Neutral
China Shanghai Index	3332, 1.92%	Bullish	Bullish
Gold	1299, 0.49%	Neutral	Neutral
WTIC Crude	47.87, -1.62%	Bearish	Bearish
Copper	3.06, 3.98%	Bullish	Bullish
Baltic Dry Index	1200, -3.77%	Bearish	Bearish
Euro	1.1931, 1.46%	Bullish	Bullish
Dollar/Yen	109.33, 0.13%	Neutral	Neutral
Dow Transports	9134, 0.42%	Neutral	Neutral
High Yield (ETF)	37.13, 0.87%	Bullish	Bullish
US 10 year Bond Yield	2.17%, -1.14%	Bullish	Bullish
Nyse Summation Index	172, -28.60%	Bearish	Neutral
US Vix	11.28, -20.90%	Bullish	Bullish
Skew	130	Neutral	Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500	2457, Below	Bearish	Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500	2451, Below	Bearish	Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500	2355, Above	Bullish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	9926, Below	Neutral	Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty	9805, Above	Neutral	Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty	9054, Above	Neutral	Bullish
India Vix	12.57, -13.71%	Neutral	Bullish
Dollar/Rupee	63.87, -0.32%	Neutral	Neutral
Overall	S & P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	8	10
Bearish Indications	5	3
Outlook	Bullish	Bullish
Observation	The S and P 500 and the Nifty moved up marginally last week. Indicators are bullish. The market is topping. Time to tighten those stops.
On the Horizon	China - PMI, Euro Zone – German employment data, CPI, German PMI, UK – PMI, Canada – GDP, U.S – Consumer confidence, Oil inventories, employment data, GDP, ISM index

*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

The S and P 500 and the Nifty bounced slightly last week. Signals are bullish for the upcoming week. Past and future FED rate hikes are yet to be priced in and sentiment indicators are back in complacency mode. Transports and the Yen are flashing warning signs. The markets are still trading at 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. The critical levels to watch are 2455 (up) and 2430 (down) on the S & P and 9900 (up) and 9800 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.

Economic Calendar

GMT-4		Event	Actual	Consensus
Wednesday, May 07
10:30	US	EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change	-2.032M	-2.500M
14:00	US	Fed Interest Rate Decision	4.5%	4.5%
14:00	US	Fed Monetary Policy Statement
14:30	US	FOMC Press Conference
15:00	US	Consumer Credit Change	$10.17B	$9.50B
19:01	UK	RICS Housing Price Balance
Thursday, May 08
01:45	CH	Unemployment Rate s.a (MoM)
02:00	UK	Halifax House Prices (MoM)		-0.1%
02:00	UK	Halifax House Prices (YoY/3m)		2.6%
07:00	UK	BoE Interest Rate Decision		4.25%

Economic Calendar >> Add to your site

My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)

Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.