There's loads of things to worry about if you are a bear such as valuations, China, US yield curve flattening, economic woes in Europe, the recent collapse in freight rates etc. Here is an apt summary of these views from the pro's:
Things to Worry About as a Bear About
Ahead of the Curve provides analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity, and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher, having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests include capital markets, banking, investment analysis, and portfolio management, and he has over 20 years of experience in the above areas, covering the US and Indian markets. He has several publications in the above areas. He currently teaches business and management students at CHRIST University. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.
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Showing posts with label baltic dry index. Show all posts
Showing posts with label baltic dry index. Show all posts
Wednesday, 20 February 2019
Things to Worry as a Bear
I have over 27 years of experience tracking capital markets across the globe, I write about financial markets and teach MBA students financial markets and investing
Saturday, 10 March 2018
Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning March 12
Indicator
|
Weekly
Level / Change
|
Implication
for
S
& P 500
|
Implication
for Nifty*
|
S
& P 500
|
2787, 3.54%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Nifty
|
10227, -2.21%
|
Neutral
**
|
Bearish
|
China
Shanghai Index
|
3307, 1.62%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Gold
|
1324, 0.05%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
WTIC
Crude
|
62.04, 1.29%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Copper
|
3.14, 0.37%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
Baltic
Dry Index
|
1201, 0.42%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
Euro
|
1.2307, -0.09%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
Dollar/Yen
|
106.77, 0.98%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Dow
Transports
|
10740, 3.94%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
High
Yield (ETF)
|
36.09, 0.25%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
US
10 year Bond Yield
|
2.89%, 1.30%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Nyse
Summation Index
|
164, 1023.97%
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
US
Vix
|
14.64, -25.27%
|
Bullish
|
Bearish
|
Skew
|
128
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
20
DMA, S and P 500
|
2714, Above
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
50
DMA, S and P 500
|
2742, Above
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
200
DMA, S and P 500
|
2571, Above
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
20
DMA, Nifty
|
10420, Below
|
Neutral
|
Bearish
|
50
DMA, Nifty
|
10606, Below
|
Neutral
|
Bearish
|
200
DMA, Nifty
|
10140, Above
|
Neutral
|
Bullish
|
India
Vix
|
14.52, 3.22%
|
Neutral
|
Bearish
|
Dollar/Rupee
|
64.93, -0.39%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
Overall
|
S
& P 500
|
Nifty
|
|
Bullish
Indications
|
10
|
6
|
|
Bearish
Indications
|
1
|
6
|
|
Outlook
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
|
Observation
|
The
S and P 500 rallied and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are mixed.
The
markets have made important tops. Time to watch those stops.
|
||
On
the Horizon
|
New Zealand –
GDP, China – Industrial production,
Euro Zone – German ZEW economic
sentiment, CPI, Switzerland – SNB rate
decision, U.S – CPI, Retail sales,
Oil inventories, Canada – Poloz
speech
|
||
*Nifty
|
India’s
Benchmark Stock Market Index
|
||
Raw
Data
|
Courtesy
Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
|
||
**Neutral
|
Changes less than 0.5% are considered
neutral
|
Image from marketwatch.com
The S and
P 500 rallied and the Nifty sharply under performed last week. Indicators are mixed
for the upcoming week. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced
in fully. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above
their long term averages from which corrections usually result. Divergences in
high yield and surging bond yields are flashing warning signs. An interest rate
shock can’t be ruled out. Indian market volatility is still below US market
volatility so there is complacency and some catch up left on the down side. The
critical levels to watch are 2800 (up)
and 2775 (down) on the S & P
and 10300 (up) and 10150 (down) on
the Nifty. A significant breach of
the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can
check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.
Labels:
baltic dry index,
bearish,
bond yield,
bullish,
china,
copper,
euro,
gold,
investing,
nifty,
nyse,
oil,
rupee,
S and P 500,
stock market,
stock signals,
trading,
transports,
vix,
yen
I have over 27 years of experience tracking capital markets across the globe, I write about financial markets and teach MBA students financial markets and investing
Sunday, 4 March 2018
Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning March 05
Indicator
|
Weekly
Level / Change
|
Implication
for
S
& P 500
|
Implication
for Nifty*
|
S
& P 500
|
2691, -2.04%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Nifty
|
10458, -0.31%
|
Neutral
**
|
Neutral
|
China
Shanghai Index
|
3255, -1.05%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Gold
|
1323, -0.52%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
WTIC
Crude
|
61.25, -3.62%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Copper
|
3.12, -2.74%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Baltic
Dry Index
|
1167, 7.16%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Euro
|
1.2317, 0.18%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
Dollar/Yen
|
105.73, -1.01%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Dow
Transports
|
10333, -2.32%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
High
Yield (ETF)
|
36.00, -0.27%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
US
10 year Bond Yield
|
2.86%, -0.49%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
Nyse
Summation Index
|
-18, 58.93%
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
US
Vix
|
19.59, 18.80%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Skew
|
128
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
20
DMA, S and P 500
|
2697, Below
|
Bearish
|
Neutral
|
50
DMA, S and P 500
|
2736, Below
|
Bearish
|
Neutral
|
200
DMA, S and P 500
|
2562, Above
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
20
DMA, Nifty
|
10529, Below
|
Neutral
|
Bearish
|
50
DMA, Nifty
|
10629, Below
|
Neutral
|
Bearish
|
200
DMA, Nifty
|
10120, Above
|
Neutral
|
Bullish
|
India
Vix
|
14.07, -0.92%
|
Neutral
|
Bullish
|
Dollar/Rupee
|
65.19, 0.54%
|
Neutral
|
Bearish
|
Overall
|
S
& P 500
|
Nifty
|
|
Bullish
Indications
|
3
|
3
|
|
Bearish
Indications
|
10
|
11
|
|
Outlook
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
|
Observation
|
The
S and P 500 and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are bearish.
The
markets have made important tops. Time to watch those stops.
|
||
On
the Horizon
|
Australia –
Retail sales, GDP, RBA rate decision, Japan
– GDP, BOJ Rate decision, Euro Zone –
Italian elections, ECB rate decision, UK
– Services PMI, GDP, U.S – Oil inventories, ISM PMI, Employment
data, Canada – PMI, BOC rate decision,
Poloz speech, Employment data
|
||
*Nifty
|
India’s
Benchmark Stock Market Index
|
||
Raw
Data
|
Courtesy
Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
|
||
**Neutral
|
Changes less than 0.5% are considered
neutral
|
Image from marketwatch.com
The S and
P 500 and the Nifty were down last week. Indicators are bearish for the
upcoming week. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced in fully.
The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long
term averages from which corrections usually result. Divergences in high yield,
transports and surging bond yields are flashing warning signs. An interest rate
shock can’t be ruled out. Indian market volatility is below US market
volatility so there is complacency and some catch up left on the down side. The
critical levels to watch are 2700 (up)
and 2680 (down) on the S & P
and 10550 (up) and 10400 (down) on
the Nifty. A significant breach of
the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can
check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.
Labels:
baltic dry index,
bearish,
bond yield,
bullish,
china,
copper,
euro,
gold,
investing,
nifty,
nyse,
oil,
rupee,
S and P 500,
stock market,
stock signals,
trading,
transports,
vix,
yen
I have over 27 years of experience tracking capital markets across the globe, I write about financial markets and teach MBA students financial markets and investing
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Bank Nifty does Price Time Squaring and gave big move - As discussed in Last Analysis Bank Nifty gave the big move as we were expecting near turn date and also made low of 24706 near our target of 24700 and bo...7 years ago
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Midcap & Smallcap Index Corrects, Lets Come Back To Fundamentals Again - Midcap Index had made a high of 18511 on 16th May 2017, fell almost 7% and is currently trading at 17230. Smallcap Index made all time high of 7679 on 11th...8 years ago
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Market outlook for 28/10/2016 - *Nifty closed flat at 8615.25* while Future closed at 8655.25, premium of 40.00 points. *Bank Nifty closed up 31.00 points (0.16%) at 19514.60* while Futur...8 years ago
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Option Open Interest for 27-10-2016 - Inference The index opened flat and went down to touch the lows at 8550, but support level buying saw the index close flat at 8615.25. The broader market w...8 years ago
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NIFTY OUTLOOK FOR 22-8-16 - *Nifty (8667)* we said ‘it is quite possible that the Nifty may open again in the green but I would be cautious in the upper regions’ the Nifty opened in ...8 years ago
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ITC To Resume Cigarette Manufacturing - ITC manufactures a range of cigarette brands, including India Kings, Classic, Gold Flake, Navy Cut, Capstan, Bristol, Flake, Silk Cut, which are manufactur...9 years ago
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My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)
Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%
My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%
My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.