About

Ahead of the Curve provides analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity, and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher, having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests include capital markets, banking, investment analysis, and portfolio management, and he has over 20 years of experience in the above areas, covering the US and Indian markets. He has several publications in the above areas. He currently teaches business and management students at CHRIST University. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Time Series Analysis with GRETL

This video shows key time-series analyses techniques such as ARIMA, Granger Causality, Co-integration, and VECM performed via GRETL. Key dia...

Showing posts with label commodity crash. Show all posts
Showing posts with label commodity crash. Show all posts

Monday, 8 May 2017

The Case for a Sell in May and Go Away

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Thursday, 10 December 2015

Interesting Market News and Views from Global Financial Markets-10

1) The S&P 500's Projected Index In 2016; Both P/E, Earnings And Economics

The S&P 500's Projected Index In 2016; Both P/E, Earnings And Economics | stock market | Scoop.it
From seekingalpha.com - Today, 1:01 PM
The 2016 Index for the S&P 500 will be 1,958.83, a loss of -5.8%.2015 P/E was 19.5X in our current survey (12/1/15) and last survey it was 17.3X, an increase of 12.7%.S&P 500 has gone from 91 (19%) co"







2) 4 Harbingers Of Stock Market Doom That Foreshadowed The 2008 Crash Are Flashing Red Again

4 Harbingers Of Stock Market Doom That Foreshadowed The 2008 Crash Are Flashing Red Again | stock market | Scoop.it
From theeconomiccollapseblog.com - Today, 2:21 PM
So many of the exact same patterns that we witnessed just before the stock market crash of 2008 are playing out once again right before our eyes.  Most of the time, a stock market crash doesn't just come out of nowhere."  


3) Should You Fear the ETF?

Should You Fear the ETF? | stock market | Scoop.it
From www.wsj.com - Today, 12:21 PM
ETFs, after a spectacular run of popularity, are suddenly scaring regulators and some investors. We spell out the dangers—real and perceived."

4) 'It's not 1929 again': statistical evidence we are NOT heading for a bear market

'It's not 1929 again': statistical evidence we are NOT heading for a bear market | stock market | Scoop.it
From www.telegraph.co.uk - December 6, 9:54 PM
Is another bear market on its way? History’s lesson suggests there are four key ingredients and none are currently flashing red"

5) Globalization doesn't mean all stock markets are the same

Globalisation doesn't mean all stock markets are the same | stock market | Scoop.it
From www.telegraph.co.uk - Today, 2:18 PM
Comment: It's not just about where you invest – but about the character of other investors in that market, writes Richard Evans"

6) The Stock Market Is Missing the Warning From Junk

The Stock Market Is Missing the Warning From Junk | stock market | Scoop.it
From www.wsj.com - Today, 12:17 PM
Junk bonds are headed for their first annual loss since the credit crisis, reflecting concerns that a six-year U.S. economic expansion and stock-market boom are on borrowed time."


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GMT-4   Event Actual Consensus
Tuesday, May 20
09:00 US Redbook Index (YoY) 5.4%
09:00 US Fed's Barkin speech
10:00 NZ GDT Price Index -0.9%
11:50 US Fed's Hammack speech
13:00 US Fed's Musalem speech
16:30 US API Weekly Crude Oil Stock -1.850M
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My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)

Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.