About

Ahead of the Curve provides analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity, and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher, having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests include capital markets, banking, investment analysis, and portfolio management, and he has over 20 years of experience in the above areas, covering the US and Indian markets. He has several publications in the above areas. He currently teaches business and management students at CHRIST University. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

Showing posts with label risk assets. Show all posts

Monday, 11 January 2016

The Reversal of the Bernanke Put

Not long ago the Bernanke (DEF) put was in full force. It meant that if the economic news was bad the FED would cut interest rates and bail the market Out. If the economic news was good then stocks would go up on the good news. Fast forward to today and we have the first FED hike and the FED put is slowly but surely getting reversed with the FED funds rate still close to record lows. This is bad news for risk assets globally as the FED is now surely powerless to support asset prices with their monetary policy.

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Economic Calendar

GMT-4		Event	Actual	Consensus
Sunday, Jun 08
24h	CH	Whit Monday
18:45	NZ	Manufacturing Sales	2.4%
Monday, Jun 09
10:00	US	Wholesale Inventories		0%
11:30	US	3-Month Bill Auction
11:30	US	6-Month Bill Auction
19:01	UK	BRC Like-For-Like Retail Sales (YoY)		2.7%
20:30	AU	Westpac Consumer Confidence

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My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)

Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.