About

Ahead of the Curve provides analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity, and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher, having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests include capital markets, banking, investment analysis, and portfolio management, and he has over 20 years of experience in the above areas, covering the US and Indian markets. He has several publications in the above areas. He currently teaches business and management students at CHRIST University. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Friday, 6 May 2016

Chart of the Day - Commodities

The chart of the day is from James Quin via the Market Oracle that shows short term break outs in several key commodities. Is there a hint of future inflation here or is it yet another false alarm?

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Economic Calendar

GMT-4		Event	Actual	Consensus
Thursday, Jun 05
10:30	US	EIA Natural Gas Storage Change	122B	111B
11:30	US	4-Week Bill Auction	4.170%
12:00	US	Fed's Kugler speech
13:30	US	Fed's Harker speech
13:30	US	Fed's Schmid speech
Friday, Jun 06
02:00	UK	Halifax House Prices (MoM)		0.4%
02:00	UK	Halifax House Prices (YoY/3m)
03:00	CH	Foreign Currency Reserves
08:30	US	Nonfarm Payrolls		130K
08:30	US	Labor Force Participation Rate

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My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)

Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.