Indicator
|
Weekly Level / Change /
Significance
|
Implication for
S & P 500
|
Implication for Nifty*
|
S & P 500
|
2092,
0.08%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
Nifty
|
7782,
-2.02%
|
Neutral**
|
Bearish
|
China Shanghai Index
|
3525,
2.58%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Gold
|
1086,
2.81%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
WTIC Crude
|
40.14,
-3.90%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Copper
|
2.08,
1.14%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Baltic Dry Index
|
563,
-3.10%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Euro
|
1.0900,
2.87%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Dollar/Yen
|
123.11,
-0.20%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
Dow Transports
|
7955,
-3.17%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
US 10 year Bond Yield
|
2.28%,
2.25%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Nyse Summation Index
|
253,
-0.15%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
US Vix
|
14.81,
-2.05%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
20 DMA, S and P 500
|
2076,
Above
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
50 DMA, S and P 500
|
2042,
Above
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
200 DMA, S and P 500
|
2065,
Above
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
20 DMA, Nifty
|
7862,
Below
|
Neutral
|
Bearish
|
50 DMA, Nifty
|
7999,
Below
|
Neutral
|
Bearish
|
200 DMA, Nifty
|
8288,
Below
|
Neutral
|
Bearish
|
India Vix
|
16.08,
-3.86%
|
Neutral
|
Bullish
|
Dollar/Rupee
|
66.64,
-0.39%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
|
|
|
|
Overall
|
S & P 500
|
Nifty
|
|
Bullish Indications
|
8
|
5
|
|
Bearish Indications
|
4
|
8
|
|
Outlook
|
Bullish
|
Bearish
|
|
Observation
|
The Sand P 500 was
unchanged and the Nifty was down last week. Indicators are mixed. Markets are
back at resistance and the Vix is signaling complacency. Transports and the
high yield market are flashing warning signs.
|
|
|
On the Horizon
|
Australia – Employment data,
New Zealand – Rate decision, China – CPI, Loan and financing data, Euro Zone
– GDP, U.K – Rate decision, Swiss – Rate decision US –Retail Sales &
Consumer Confidence.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
*Nifty
|
India’s Benchmark Stock Market
Index
|
|
|
Raw Data
|
Courtesy Google finance,
Stock charts, FXCM
|
|
|
**Neutral
|
Changes less than 0.5% are considered
neutral
|
|
|
The US market was unchanged
and the Nifty fell hard last week. Signals are mixed for the upcoming week. The
markets are back at resistance and are likely to continue to correct with most
emerging markets, and commodities already breaking down on a strong dollar and
a hawkish FED. Transports and the high yield market are signaling trouble
ahead. The critical levels to watch are 2100 (up) and 2080 (down) on the S
& P and 7900 (up) and 7700 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the
above levels could trigger the next big move in the markets very shortly. You
can check out last week’s report for
a comparison. You can also check out snapshots of the S
and P 500 and Nifty Indices.
Love your thoughts and feedback.
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