About

Ahead of the Curve provides analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity, and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher, having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests include capital markets, banking, investment analysis, and portfolio management, and he has over 20 years of experience in the above areas, covering the US and Indian markets. He has several publications in the above areas. He currently teaches business and management students at CHRIST University. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

Featured post

Time Series Analysis with GRETL

This video shows key time-series analyses techniques such as ARIMA, Granger Causality, Co-integration, and VECM performed via GRETL. Key dia...

Thursday, 22 September 2022

Nifty leading up to January 2008 versus the Nifty Today

The chart below contrasts the last 3 months of price action in the Nifty with the price action of the Nifty leading up to the January 2008 crash. We were entering a recession in January 2008 and are already in one today, backed up by hawkish central bank rhetoric globally.





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My Favorite Books

  • The Intelligent Investor
  • Liars Poker
  • One up on Wall Street
  • Beating the Street
  • Remniscience of a stock operator

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Economic Calendar

GMT-4   Event Actual Consensus
Tuesday, May 20
18:45 NZ Trade Balance NZD (MoM) $1,426M $500M Revised from $970M
19:00 US Fed's Bostic speech
19:00 US Fed's Daly speech
19:00 US Fed's Hammack speech
21:00 AU Westpac Leading Index (MoM)
Wednesday, May 21
02:00 UK Retail Price Index (YoY) 4.2%
02:00 UK Retail Price Index (MoM) 1.5%
02:00 UK Consumer Price Index (MoM) 1.1%
02:00 UK Consumer Price Index (YoY) 3.3%
02:00 UK Core Consumer Price Index (YoY) 3.6%
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My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)

Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.