Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning April 20

Indicator	Weekly Level / Change	Implication for S & P 500	Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500	2875, 3.04%	Bullish	Bullish
Nifty	9267, 1.70%	Neutral **	Bullish
China Shanghai Index	2839, 1.50%	Bullish	Bullish
Gold	1695, -2.64%	Bearish	Bearish
WTIC Crude	18.12, -19.70%	Bearish	Bearish
Copper	2.34, 2.50%	Bullish	Bullish
Baltic Dry Index	751, 18.27%	Bullish	Bullish
Euro	1.0876, -0.55%	Bearish	Bearish
Dollar/Yen	107.53, -0.87%	Bearish	Bearish
Dow Transports	8234, -0.04%	Neutral	Neutral
High Yield (Bond)	100.13, -1.49%	Bearish	Bearish
US 10 year Bond Yield	0.64%, -11.50%	Bullish	Bullish
Nyse Summation Index	-402, 45.29%	Bullish	Neutral
US Vix	38.15, -8.45%	Bullish	Bullish
Skew	126	Neutral	Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500	2613, Above	Bullish	Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500	2863, Above	Bullish	Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500	3013, Below	Bearish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	8576, Above	Neutral	Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty	10322, Below	Neutral	Bearish
200 DMA, Nifty	11312, Below	Neutral	Bearish
S & P 500 P/E	20.61	Bearish	Neutral
Nifty P/E	20.85	Neutral	Bearish
India Vix	42.59, -7.60%	Neutral	Bullish
Dollar/Rupee	76.55, 0.88%	Neutral	Bearish
Overall	S & P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	9	9
Bearish Indications	7	9
Outlook	Bullish	Neutral
Observation	The S and P 500 and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are mixed for the week. The markets have begun a great depression style collapse. Watch those stops.
On the Horizon	UK – Employment data, CPI
*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Courtesy Stock charts, investing.com, multpl.com, NSE
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

The S and P and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are mixed for the coming week. The rally in the S & P is on borrowed time and it is going to crash to 1800 soon. Long term, the epic meltdown is set to continue resulting in a 5 year plus bear market with lot lower levels maybe as low as 800 on the S and P. QE forever from the FED is about to trigger the deflationary collapse of the century and we have made a major top in global equity markets. The market is looking like the short of a life time with non-conformations from the transports, other global indices and commodities. High valuations continue. The breakdown in Crude and the Euro is a precursor to yet another massive drop in the S and P 500. The recent global virus epidemic (black swan) is likely to dent global GDP significantly and usher in a depression much faster than most think. The trend has changed from bullish to bearish and the markets are getting smashed by a strong dollar. Looking for significant under performance in the Nifty going forward on rapidly deteriorating macros. A 5 year deflationary wave has started in key asset classes like the Euro, stocks and commodities amidst a number of bearish divergences and over stretched valuations. We are on the verge of a multi-year great depression. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. Tail risk has been very high off late as the yield curve inverts into a recession. The critical levels to watch for the week are 2885 (up) and 2860 (down) on the S & P 500 and 9350 (up) and 9200 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.