Indicator
|
Weekly
Level / Change
|
Implication
for
S
& P 500
|
Implication
for Nifty*
|
S
& P 500
|
2875, 3.04%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Nifty
|
9267, 1.70%
|
Neutral
**
|
Bullish
|
China
Shanghai Index
|
2839, 1.50%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Gold
|
1695, -2.64%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
WTIC Crude
|
18.12,
-19.70%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Copper
|
2.34, 2.50%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Baltic
Dry Index
|
751, 18.27%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Euro
|
1.0876,
-0.55%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Dollar/Yen
|
107.53,
-0.87%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Dow
Transports
|
8234, -0.04%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
High
Yield (Bond)
|
100.13,
-1.49%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
US 10
year Bond Yield
|
0.64%,
-11.50%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Nyse
Summation Index
|
-402, 45.29%
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
US Vix
|
38.15,
-8.45%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Skew
|
126
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
20
DMA, S and P 500
|
2613, Above
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
50
DMA, S and P 500
|
2863, Above
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
200
DMA, S and P 500
|
3013, Below
|
Bearish
|
Neutral
|
20
DMA, Nifty
|
8576, Above
|
Neutral
|
Bullish
|
50
DMA, Nifty
|
10322,
Below
|
Neutral
|
Bearish
|
200
DMA, Nifty
|
11312,
Below
|
Neutral
|
Bearish
|
S
& P 500 P/E
|
20.61
|
Bearish
|
Neutral
|
Nifty
P/E
|
20.85
|
Neutral
|
Bearish
|
India
Vix
|
42.59,
-7.60%
|
Neutral
|
Bullish
|
Dollar/Rupee
|
76.55,
0.88%
|
Neutral
|
Bearish
|
Overall
|
S
& P 500
|
Nifty
|
|
Bullish
Indications
|
9
|
9
|
|
Bearish
Indications
|
7
|
9
|
|
Outlook
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
|
Observation
|
The S
and P 500 and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are mixed for the week.
The
markets have begun a great depression
style collapse. Watch those stops.
|
||
On the
Horizon
|
UK – Employment
data, CPI
|
||
*Nifty
|
India’s
Benchmark Stock Market Index
|
||
Raw
Data
|
Courtesy
Stock charts, investing.com, multpl.com, NSE
|
||
**Neutral
|
Changes
less than 0.5% are considered neutral
|
The S and P and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are mixed
for the coming week. The rally in the S & P is on borrowed time and it is going to crash to 1800 soon. Long term, the epic meltdown is set to continue resulting in a 5 year plus bear
market with lot lower levels maybe as low as 800 on the S and P. QE forever from the FED is about to trigger
the deflationary collapse of the century and we have made a major top in global
equity markets. The market is looking
like the short of a life time with
non-conformations from the transports, other global indices and commodities. High
valuations continue. The breakdown in Crude and the Euro is a precursor to yet another
massive drop in the S and P 500. The recent global virus epidemic (black swan) is likely to dent global
GDP significantly and usher in a depression
much faster than most think. The trend has changed from bullish to bearish and
the markets are getting smashed by a strong
dollar. Looking for significant under performance in the Nifty going
forward on rapidly deteriorating macros. A 5
year deflationary wave has started in key asset classes like the Euro,
stocks and commodities amidst a number of bearish divergences and over
stretched valuations. We are on the verge of a multi-year great
depression. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations
above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. Tail risk
has been very high off late as the yield
curve inverts into a recession. The critical levels to watch for the week are 2885 (up) and 2860
(down) on the S & P 500 and 9350 (up) and 9200 (down) on
the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger
the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.
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