|
Indicator
|
Weekly
Level / Change
|
Implication
for
S
& P 500
|
Implication
for Nifty*
|
|
S
& P 500
|
2837, -1.32%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
|
Nifty
|
9154, -1.21%
|
Neutral
**
|
Bearish
|
|
China
Shanghai Index
|
2809, -1.06%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
|
Gold
|
1746, -2.64%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
|
WTIC
Crude
|
17.19,
-5.91%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
|
Copper
|
2.34, 0.00%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
|
Baltic
Dry Index
|
665, -11.45%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
|
Euro
|
1.0821,
-0.52%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
|
Dollar/Yen
|
107.54,
-0.00%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
|
Dow
Transports
|
8092, -1.72%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
|
High
Yield (Bond)
|
96.62,
-3.51%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
|
US 10
year Bond Yield
|
0.61%,
-5.80%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
|
Nyse
Summation Index
|
-277, 31.08%
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
|
US Vix
|
35.93,
-5.82%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
|
Skew
|
127
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
|
20
DMA, S and P 500
|
2708, Above
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
|
50 DMA,
S and P 500
|
2808, Above
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
|
200
DMA, S and P 500
|
3008, Below
|
Bearish
|
Neutral
|
|
20
DMA, Nifty
|
8768, Above
|
Neutral
|
Bullish
|
|
50
DMA, Nifty
|
10043,
Below
|
Neutral
|
Bearish
|
|
200
DMA, Nifty
|
11247,
Below
|
Neutral
|
Bearish
|
|
S
& P 500 P/E
|
20.61
|
Bearish
|
Neutral
|
|
Nifty
P/E
|
20.34
|
Neutral
|
Bearish
|
|
India
Vix
|
39.18,
-8.16%
|
Neutral
|
Bullish
|
|
Dollar/Rupee
|
76.27,
-0.37%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
|
Overall
|
S
& P 500
|
Nifty
|
|
|
Bullish
Indications
|
5
|
4
|
|
|
Bearish
Indications
|
10
|
12
|
|
|
Outlook
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
|
|
Observation
|
The S
and P 500 and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are bearish for the week.
The
markets have begun a great depression
style collapse. Watch those stops.
|
||
|
On the
Horizon
|
Japan – BOJ
rate decision, US – FOMC rate
decision, GDP, Eurozone – ECB rate decision, CPI, German employment data
|
||
|
*Nifty
|
India’s
Benchmark Stock Market Index
|
||
|
Raw
Data
|
Courtesy
Stock charts, investing.com, multpl.com, NSE
|
||
|
**Neutral
|
Changes
less than 0.5% are considered neutral
|
The S and P and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are bearish
for the coming week. The S & P is failing again and
it is headed to 1800. Long term, the epic meltdown is set to continue resulting in a 5 year plus bear
market with lot lower levels maybe as low as 800 on the S and P. QE forever from the FED is about to trigger
the deflationary collapse of the century and we have made a major top in global
equity markets. The market is looking
like the short of a life time with
non-conformations from the transports, other global indices and commodities. High
valuations continue. The breakdown in Crude and the Euro is a precursor to yet another
massive drop in the S and P 500. The recent global virus epidemic (black swan) is likely to dent global
GDP significantly and usher in a depression
much faster than most think. The trend has changed from bullish to bearish and
the markets are getting smashed by a strong
dollar. Looking for significant under performance in the Nifty going
forward on rapidly deteriorating macros. A 5
year deflationary wave has started in key asset classes like the Euro,
stocks and commodities amidst a number of bearish divergences and over
stretched valuations. We are entering a multi-year great depression. The markets are still trading well
over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which
corrections usually result. Tail risk has been very high off late as the yield curve inverts into a recession. The
critical levels to watch for the week
are 2850 (up) and 2825 (down) on the S & P 500 and 9250 (up) and 9050
(down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above
levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out
last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.