About

Ahead of the Curve provides analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity, and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher, having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests include capital markets, banking, investment analysis, and portfolio management, and he has over 20 years of experience in the above areas, covering the US and Indian markets. He has several publications in the above areas. He currently teaches business and management students at CHRIST University. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

Wednesday, 12 September 2018

Mid Week Market Insight

Some interesting moves in the commodity markets off late. The precious market complex is still languishing near its recent lows while crude oil is near its recent highs. This weeks report focuses on key developments in global commodity markets from some of the best asset managers, market commentators, financial analysts and CMT's of today:

Commodities

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Economic Calendar

GMT-4		Event	Actual	Consensus
Friday, May 30
15:30	US	CFTC Gold NC Net Positions	$174.2K
15:30	US	CFTC Oil NC Net Positions	165.7K
15:30	US	CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions	$-53.0K
15:30	UK	CFTC GBP NC Net Positions	£35.4K
15:30	AU	CFTC AUD NC Net Positions	$-61.2K
16:45	US	Fed's Daly speech
Sunday, Jun 01
19:00	AU	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI		51.7
21:00	AU	TD-MI Inflation Gauge (MoM)
21:00	AU	TD-MI Inflation Gauge (YoY)
21:30	AU	ANZ Job Advertisements

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My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)

Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.