About

Ahead of the Curve provides analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity, and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher, having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests include capital markets, banking, investment analysis, and portfolio management, and he has over 20 years of experience in the above areas, covering the US and Indian markets. He has several publications in the above areas. He currently teaches business and management students at CHRIST University. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

Featured post

Time Series Analysis with GRETL

This video shows key time-series analyses techniques such as ARIMA, Granger Causality, Co-integration, and VECM performed via GRETL. Key dia...

Wednesday, 10 August 2016

Chart of the Week - S & P 500 Seasonal Performance

The chart of the week is from Lance Roberts via seeking alpha and shows seasonal variations in S & P 500 performance since 1928. The period between August and October is the weakest period often generating
negative returns:

s & p 500 seasonals
Posted by at stock market views
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My Favorite Books

  • The Intelligent Investor
  • Liars Poker
  • One up on Wall Street
  • Beating the Street
  • Remniscience of a stock operator

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Economic Calendar

GMT-4   Event Actual Consensus
Monday, May 19
24h CA Victoria Day
11:30 US 6-Month Bill Auction 4.140%
13:15 US Fed's Logan speech
13:30 US Fed's Kashkari speech
14:45 US Fed's Bostic speech
Tuesday, May 20
00:30 AU RBA Monetary Policy Statement
00:30 AU RBA Rate Statement
00:30 AU RBA Interest Rate Decision 3.85%
01:30 AU RBA Press Conference
04:00 UK BoE's Pill speech
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My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)

Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.