About

Ahead of the Curve provides analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity, and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher, having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests include capital markets, banking, investment analysis, and portfolio management, and he has over 20 years of experience in the above areas, covering the US and Indian markets. He has several publications in the above areas. He currently teaches business and management students at CHRIST University. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

Tuesday, 5 July 2016

Chart of the Week - Global GDP

The chart of the week is courtesy of Bloomberg and shows historic and projected levels for Global GDP. Global GDP has remained below levels observed before the great recession of 2008-2009 and is expected to remain so for the foreseeable future:

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Economic Calendar

GMT-4		Event	Actual	Consensus
Friday, May 16
15:30	AU	CFTC AUD NC Net Positions	$-49.3K
16:00	US	Total Net TIC Flows	$254.3B		Revised from $284.7B
16:00	US	Net Long-Term TIC Flows	$161.8B	$44.2B	Revised from $112.0B
18:00	US	Fed's Barkin speech
21:40	US	Fed's Daly speech
Sunday, May 18
17:20	US	Fed's Williams speech
18:30	NZ	Business NZ PSI
18:45	NZ	Producer Price Index - Output (QoQ)		0.1%
18:45	NZ	Producer Price Index - Input (QoQ)		0.2%
19:01	UK	Rightmove House Price Index (MoM)

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My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)

Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.