About

Ahead of the Curve provides analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity, and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher, having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests include capital markets, banking, investment analysis, and portfolio management, and he has over 20 years of experience in the above areas, covering the US and Indian markets. He has several publications in the above areas. He currently teaches business and management students at CHRIST University. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

Monday, 29 February 2016

India Union Budget 2016-17

How does this budget stack up in comparison to earlier budgets? Here are some key line item comparisons via a terrific infographic from rediff.com:

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Economic Calendar

GMT-4		Event	Actual	Consensus
Monday, Jun 16
08:30	US	NY Empire State Manufacturing Index	-16.0	-5.5
11:30	US	6-Month Bill Auction	4.155%
11:30	US	3-Month Bill Auction	4.24%
13:00	US	20-Year Bond Auction	4.942%
18:45	NZ	Food Price Index (MoM)	0.5%
Tuesday, Jun 17
08:30	US	Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM)		0.1%
08:30	US	Retail Sales (MoM)		-0.7%
08:30	US	Retail Sales (YoY)
08:30	US	Retail Sales Control Group
08:30	CA	Canadian Portfolio Investment in Foreign Securities

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My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)

Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.