About

Ahead of the Curve provides analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity, and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher, having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests include capital markets, banking, investment analysis, and portfolio management, and he has over 20 years of experience in the above areas, covering the US and Indian markets. He has several publications in the above areas. He currently teaches business and management students at CHRIST University. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

Friday, 19 August 2016

Daily Forex Insight

Here are some insights from the currency strategists at dailyfx. They cover the fundamentals and technicals of key Forex pairs and other key markets along with some of the key economic news of the day:

Thursday, 18 August 2016

Daily Forex Insight

Wednesday, 17 August 2016

Chart of the Week - Cresmont P/E

The Chart of the week is courtesy Gary Gordon via seeking alpha and shows the Cresmont P/E ratio of the S & P 500. The ratio is currently at well over 2 standard deviations over the mean much like in 1930, 2000, and 2008 when the market experienced substantial sell offs. Will it be any different this time around?

Crestmont-PE-arithmetic-mean

Economic Calendar

GMT-4		Event	Actual	Consensus
Thursday, May 15
02:00	UK	Manufacturing Production (YoY)	-0.8%	-0.5%	Revised from 0.3%
02:00	UK	Gross Domestic Product (YoY)	1.3%	1.2%
02:00	UK	Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)	0.7%	0.6%
02:30	CH	Producer and Import Prices (MoM)	0.1%	0.2%
02:30	CH	Producer and Import Prices (YoY)	-0.5%
n/a	UK	NIESR GDP Estimate (3M)
08:15	CA	Housing Starts s.a (YoY)		227.5K
08:30	US	NY Empire State Manufacturing Index		-10.0
08:30	US	Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM)		0.3%
08:30	US	Retail Sales Control Group

Economic Calendar >> Add to your site

My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)

Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.