Wednesday 11 August 2021

Inter Market Divergences

 With the stock markets hitting new highs some inter-market divergences have started to appear. Let's take a look at a few of them. The first chart looks at the SPX versus the Transports. You can see the marked divergence in the last few months with transports not confirming new highs in the SPX:


Next, we look at SPX vs Gold. Gold is a big beneficiary of liquidity in the system and often leads the SPX. Again there is a notable divergence developing:



Taking a look at SPX vs Crude shows a smaller divergence that has developed recently:


The AUDJPY currency cross is a good measure of risk appetite. Note the marked divergence developing:


Lastly, the SPX vs VIX chart reveals the VIX not making new lows for new highs in the SPX:


While these divergences may not matter with central banks flooding the markets with liquidity, once the liquidity shows signs of reversing, they may prove useful in determining what lies ahead.



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