Indicator
|
Weekly
Level / Change
|
Implication
for
S
& P 500
|
Implication
for Nifty*
|
S
& P 500
|
3185, 1.76%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Nifty
|
10768,
1.51%
|
Neutral
**
|
Bullish
|
China
Shanghai Index
|
3383, 7.31%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Gold
|
1802, 0.66%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
WTIC
Crude
|
40.55,
-0.25%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
Copper
|
2.90, 5.42%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Baltic
Dry Index
|
1810, -0.71%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Euro
|
1.1300,
0.53%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Dollar/Yen
|
106.94,
-0.56%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Dow
Transports
|
9313, 0.83%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
High
Yield (Bond ETF)
|
102.13,
0.40%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
US 10
year Bond Yield
|
0.63%,
-5.38%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Nyse
Summation Index
|
660, -10.57%
|
Bearish
|
Neutral
|
US Vix
|
27.29,
-1.41%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Skew
|
136
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
20
DMA, S and P 500
|
3109, Above
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
50
DMA, S and P 500
|
3034, Above
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
200
DMA, S and P 500
|
3027, Above
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
20
DMA, Nifty
|
10388,
Above
|
Neutral
|
Bullish
|
50
DMA, Nifty
|
9850, Above
|
Neutral
|
Bullish
|
200
DMA, Nifty
|
10877,
Below
|
Neutral
|
Bearish
|
S
& P 500 P/E
|
22.84
|
Bearish
|
Neutral
|
Nifty
P/E
|
28.27
|
Neutral
|
Bearish
|
India
Vix
|
24.94,
-1.01%
|
Neutral
|
Bullish
|
Dollar/Rupee
|
75.19,
0.75%
|
Neutral
|
Bearish
|
Overall
|
S
& P 500
|
Nifty
|
|
Bullish
Indications
|
11
|
11
|
|
Bearish
Indications
|
4
|
5
|
|
Outlook
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
|
Observation
|
The S
and P and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are bullish for the week.
The
markets have begun a great depression
style collapse. Watch those stops.
|
||
On the
Horizon
|
US – CPI, Eurozone - CPI, ECB rate decision, UK – CPI, GDP, Employment data, China - GDP
|
||
*Nifty
|
India’s
Benchmark Stock Market Index
|
||
Raw
Data
|
Courtesy
Stock charts, investing.com, multpl.com, NSE
|
||
**Neutral
|
Changes
less than 0.5% are considered neutral
|
The S and P 500 and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are
bullish for the coming week. The recent rally is on borrowed time as we head
into one of the worst earnings decline
period in stock market history with extremely
high valuations. After extreme euphoria for the indices a highly probable selloff to the
2700 area is emerging on the S and P, and 8500 should arrive on the Nifty in short
order. The FED is repeating the
Japan experiment and the lost 3 decades in Japan (1989-2019) is set to repeat
across the globe. SPX 1500 and lower by year end and we stay there till 2050,
scary? The markets are very close to an epic melt down and the SPX is headed way lower. The markets are overvalued,
overbought and out of touch with economic realities. Long term, the epic meltdown
is set to continue resulting in a 5 year plus bear market with lot lower levels
maybe as low as 800 on the S and P. QE
forever from the FED is about to trigger the deflationary collapse of the
century and we have made a major top in global equity markets. The market is looking like the short of a life time with non-conformations from the transports,
other global indices and commodities. High valuations continue. The breakdown
in Crude and the Euro is a precursor to yet another massive drop in the S and P
500. The recent global virus epidemic (black
swan) is likely to dent global GDP significantly and usher in a depression much faster than most think.
The trend has changed from bullish to bearish and the markets are getting smashed by a strong dollar. Looking for
significant under performance in the Nifty going forward on rapidly
deteriorating macros. A 5 year
deflationary wave has started in key asset classes like the Euro, stocks
and commodities amidst a number of bearish divergences and over
stretched valuations. We are entering a multi-year great depression. The markets are still trading well
over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which
corrections usually result. Tail risk has been very high off late as the yield curve inverts into a recession. The
critical levels to watch for the week
are 3200 (up) and 3170 (down) on the S & P 500 and 10850 (up) and 10700
(down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above
levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out
last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback. Here's the outlook from@JoeFriday_714:
Feel Free to Share.. Re-Tweet.. etc.. Thx, JF 😎 https://t.co/4Tkgp7ZSeP— JoeFriday714 (@joefriday_714) July 12, 2020
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