Indicator
|
Weekly
Level / Change
|
Implication
for
S
& P 500
|
Implication
for Nifty*
|
S
& P 500
|
2711, -8.79%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Nifty
|
9955, -9.41%
|
Neutral
**
|
Bearish
|
China
Shanghai Index
|
2887, -4.85%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Gold
|
1529, -8.57%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
WTIC
Crude
|
32.11,
-22.21%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Copper
|
2.49, -3.11%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Baltic
Dry Index
|
631, 2.27%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Euro
|
1.1106,
-1.59%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Dollar/Yen
|
107.93,
2.48%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Dow
Transports
|
7939, -11.35%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
High
Yield (Bond)
|
99.18,
-6.12%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
US 10
year Bond Yield
|
0.98%,
96.62%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Nyse
Summation Index
|
-780, -214.15%
|
Bearish
|
Neutral
|
US Vix
|
57.83,
37.89%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Skew
|
132
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
20
DMA, S and P 500
|
3052, Below
|
Bearish
|
Neutral
|
50 DMA,
S and P 500
|
3198, Below
|
Bearish
|
Neutral
|
200
DMA, S and P 500
|
3049, Below
|
Bearish
|
Neutral
|
20
DMA, Nifty
|
11354,
Below
|
Neutral
|
Bearish
|
50
DMA, Nifty
|
11829,
Below
|
Neutral
|
Bearish
|
200
DMA, Nifty
|
11654,
Below
|
Neutral
|
Bearish
|
S
& P 500 P/E
|
20.38
|
Bearish
|
Neutral
|
Nifty
P/E
|
22.66
|
Neutral
|
Bearish
|
India
Vix
|
51.47,
100.73%
|
Neutral
|
Bearish
|
Dollar/Rupee
|
73.84,
-0.22%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
Overall
|
S
& P 500
|
Nifty
|
|
Bullish
Indications
|
2
|
2
|
|
Bearish
Indications
|
15
|
15
|
|
Outlook
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
|
Observation
|
The S
and P 500 and the Nifty crashed last week. Indicators are bearish for the
week.
The
markets are on the verge of a great depression
style collapse. Watch those stops.
|
||
On the
Horizon
|
US – FOMC
rate decision, Eurozone – CPI, UK – Employment data, China – PboC rate decision
|
||
*Nifty
|
India’s
Benchmark Stock Market Index
|
||
Raw
Data
|
Courtesy
Stock charts, investing.com, multpl.com, NSE
|
||
**Neutral
|
Changes
less than 0.5% are considered neutral
|
The S and P and the Nifty crashed last week. Indicators are bearish
for the coming week. A 200 point rally in the S & P is likely soon after which we are
likely to get a retest of the recent lows. Long
term, the epic meltdown that just began
is set to continue resulting in a 5 year plus bear market. QE forever from the FED is about to trigger
the deflationary collapse of the century and we have made a major top in global
equity markets. The market is looking
like the short of a life time with
non-conformations from the transports, other global indices and commodities. Insane
valuations continue. The breakdown in Crude and the Euro is a likely a
precursor to a massive drop in the S and P 500. The recent global virus
epidemic (black swan) is likely to dent
global GDP significantly and usher in a recession
much faster than most think. The trend is about to change from bullish to
bearish and the markets are about to get smashed
by a rebounding dollar. Looking for significant under performance in the
Nifty going forward on rapidly deteriorating macros. A 5 year deflationary wave is about to start in key asset classes
like the Euro, stocks and commodities amidst a number of bearish divergences
and over stretched valuations. We are on the verge of a multi-year great depression. The markets are still trading well
over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which
corrections usually result. Tail risk has been very high off late as the yield curve inverts into a recession. The
critical levels to watch for the week
are 2725 (up) and 2700 (down) on the S & P 500 and 10050 (up) and 9850
(down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above
levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out
last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.
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