Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning March 19

Indicator	Weekly Level / Change	Implication for S & P 500	Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500	2752, -1.24%	Bearish	Bearish
Nifty	10195, -0.31%	Neutral **	Neutral
China Shanghai Index	3270, -1.13%	Bearish	Bearish
Gold	1312, -0.88%	Bearish	Bearish
WTIC Crude	62.41, 0.60%	Bullish	Bullish
Copper	3.11, -0.91%	Bearish	Bearish
Baltic Dry Index	1150, -4.25%	Bearish	Bearish
Euro	1.2296, -0.09%	Neutral	Neutral
Dollar/Yen	106.04, -0.69%	Bearish	Bearish
Dow Transports	10684, -0.52%	Bearish	Bearish
High Yield (ETF)	35.97, -0.33%	Neutral	Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield	2.85%, -1.59%	Bullish	Bullish
Nyse Summation Index	283, 73.22%	Bullish	Neutral
US Vix	15.80, 7.92%	Bearish	Bearish
Skew	147	Bearish	Bearish
20 DMA, S and P 500	2735, Above	Bullish	Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500	2749, Above	Bullish	Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500	2579, Above	Bullish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	10380, Below	Neutral	Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty	10594, Below	Neutral	Bearish
200 DMA, Nifty	10161, Above	Neutral	Bullish
India Vix	15.22, 4.78%	Neutral	Bearish
Dollar/Rupee	65.08, 0.23%	Neutral	Neutral
Overall	S & P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	6	3
Bearish Indications	9	12
Outlook	Bearish	Bearish
Observation	The S and P 500 and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are bearish. The markets have made important tops. Time to watch those stops.
On the Horizon	Australia – RBA minutes, Employment data, New Zealand – RBNZ rate decision, Euro Zone – German ZEW economic sentiment, German PMI, German IFO business climate index, UK – CPI, Employment data, Retail sales, BOE rate decision, U.S – Home sales, Oil inventories, FOMC rate decision, Durable goods, Canada – CPI, Retail sales, Russia – Rate decision
*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

Image from marketwatch.com

The S and P 500 and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are bearish for the upcoming week. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced in fully. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. Under performance in high yield and other risk assets are flashing warning signs. An interest rate shock can’t be ruled out. Indian market volatility is still below US market volatility so there is complacency and some catch up left on the down side. The critical levels to watch are 2765 (up) and 2740 (down) on the S & P and 10300 (up) and 10100 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.