Indicator
|
Weekly
Level / Change
|
Implication
for
S
& P 500
|
Implication
for Nifty*
|
S
& P 500
|
2810, 0.86%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Nifty
|
10895, 2.00%
|
Neutral
**
|
Bullish
|
China
Shanghai Index
|
3488, 1.72%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Gold
|
1333, -0.13%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
WTIC
Crude
|
63.31, -1.54%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Copper
|
3.19, -0.96%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Baltic
Dry Index
|
1139, -12.59%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Euro
|
1.2223, 0.20%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
Dollar/Yen
|
110.82, -0.17%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
Dow
Transports
|
11305, -0.60%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
High
Yield (ETF)
|
36.82, -0.11%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
US
10 year Bond Yield
|
2.63%, 3.33%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Nyse
Summation Index
|
682, -3.96%
|
Neutral
|
Bearish
|
US
Vix
|
11.27, 10.93%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Skew
|
132
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
20
DMA, S and P 500
|
2732, Above
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
50
DMA, S and P 500
|
2666, Above
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
200
DMA, S and P 500
|
2508, Above
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
20
DMA, Nifty
|
10603, Above
|
Neutral
|
Bullish
|
50
DMA, Nifty
|
10408, Above
|
Neutral
|
Bullish
|
200
DMA, Nifty
|
9931, Above
|
Neutral
|
Bullish
|
India
Vix
|
13.98, 1.82%
|
Neutral
|
Bearish
|
Dollar/Rupee
|
63.85, 0.52%
|
Neutral
|
Bearish
|
Overall
|
S
& P 500
|
Nifty
|
|
Bullish
Indications
|
5
|
6
|
|
Bearish
Indications
|
6
|
8
|
|
Outlook
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
|
Observation
|
The
S and P 500 and the Nifty made new highs last week. Indicators are bearish.
The
markets have gone parabolic. Time to watch those stops.
|
||
On
the Horizon
|
New Zealand
– CPI, Japan – BOJ outlook, Euro Zone – German ZEW economic
sentiment, German IFO business climate index, German PMI, ECB rate decision, UK – Employment data, GDP, U.S – Home sales, Oil inventories, Durable
goods, GDP, Canada – Retail sales,
CPI
|
||
*Nifty
|
India’s
Benchmark Stock Market Index
|
||
Raw
Data
|
Courtesy
Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
|
||
**Neutral
|
Changes less than 0.5% are considered
neutral
|
The S and
P 500 and the Nifty made new highs last week. Signals are bearish for the
upcoming week. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced in and sentiment
indicators are back in complacency mode. The markets are still trading well
over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which
corrections usually result. Divergences in high yields and surging bond yields
are flashing some warning signs. An interest rate shock can’t be ruled out. The
critical levels to watch are 2820 (up) and 2800(down) on the S & P and 11000
(up) and 10800 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels
could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last
week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.
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