Wednesday 15 June 2016

Brexit is Official - Big Downside Ahead

We now know the Fed is on hold for the foreseeable future. Markets are now focusing on Brexit. The referendum has gone decisively in favor of a Brexit. This is all set to rock risk assets with some significant downside. A set up very similar to August 2015 and January 2016 is developing. Lets look at some key drivers:

1) The Vix:

Volatility has begin to surge yet again with the Vix eclipsing the 20 mark. The Vix has not made new lows with each of the recent highs in the S and P 500 and could eclipse its February highs soon:

2) The Yen:

The Yen has just made new highs for 2016 and is looking to head to the 100 mark as risk aversion and carry trade liquidation become the game in town:

3) Gold:

Gold is also benefiting from its safe haven status as paper assets go out of favor. Gold is sitting very close to its 2016 highs:

4) Commodities:

Economically sensitive commodities like copper and oil have resumed major break downs and are likely to head much lower as global economic weakness takes center stage:

5) Stock Markets:

European markets are already sporting big break downs along with emerging markets and the trend is likely to continue and spread to markets in the US and else where:

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