Thursday 23 April 2015

Is the Rupee sending a warning signal to the stock market?

The last time there was significant Rupee weakness was back in August 2013 when the Nifty crashed closed to 20% led by bank stocks that crashed over 30%. Fast forward to today and significant Rupee weakness has started to re-emerge with the Rupee recently breaching the 64 level.
USD/INR (INR=X)
This has yet again caused bank stocks to underperform with the bank nifty down close to 10% from recent highs and further under performance is likely if the Rupee sells off further.
BANK NIFTY (^NSEBANK)
This would also prevent rates from coming down in the short term which is not good for the overall economy and the stock market.
CNX NIFTY (^NSEI)
Recently Indian stock stock market volatility has significantly exceeded US stock market volatility with the India vix crossing 19, yet another warning sign.

The stage appears to be set for significant equity underperformance in 2015.

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