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Dollar Strength to Return?

Yet another FED day has come and gone, the dollar has been trending down and is approaching oversold levels and could trigger a risk off trade near term, here's how to play this:

1) Dollar Strength:

The dollar is oversold and is likely to bounce from oversold levels and strengthen against the Euro: 

Can play this via the Ultralong Dollar ETF UUP: 

 2) This should trigger a selloff in commodities like gold, oil and base metals which are overbought: 

Can play this via the ultra short basic materials ETF SMN: 

 3) The Volatility picture remains complacent suggesting a surge in volatility post the fed. 

Can play it via the ultra long ETF on volatility UVXY: 

 4) This could trigger a selloff in stocks, with the S & P 500 breaking down out of a massive rising wedge on the long term charts courtesy stocktwits.com: 

 Can play this via ultra short ETF’s

5) Collapsing High Yield:

A high yield collapse is just around the corner and can be played via the ultra short ETF SJB:

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning March 14

Indicator	Weekly Level / Change	Implication for S & P 500	Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500	2022, 1.11%	Bullish	Bullish
Nifty	7510, 0.33%	Neutral**	Neutral
China Shanghai Index	2810, -2.22%	Bearish	Bearish
Gold	1251, -0.71%	Bearish	Bearish
WTIC Crude	38.49, 5.95%	Bullish	Bullish
Copper	2.24, -1.06%	Bearish	Bearish
Baltic Dry Index	384, 10.03%	Bullish	Bullish
Euro	1.118, 1.48%	Bullish	Bullish
Dollar/Yen	113.80, 0.05%	Neutral	Neutral
Dow Transports	7693, 0.54%	Bullish	Bullish
High Yield (ETF)	34.33, 1.54%	Bullish	Bullish
US 10 year Bond Yield	1.97%, 4.99%	Bearish	Bearish
Nyse Summation Index	682, 110.54%	Bullish	Neutral
US Vix	16.50, -2.14%	Bullish	Bullish
20 DMA, S and P 500	1932, Above	Bullish	Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500	1955, Above	Bullish	Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500	2020, Above	Bullish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	7231, Above	Neutral	Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty	7389, Above	Neutral	Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty	7930, Below	Neutral	Bearish
India Vix	17.10, -4.39%	Neutral	Bullish
Dollar/Rupee	66.98, 0.04%	Neutral	Neutral
Overall	S & P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	11	10
Bearish Indications	4	5
Outlook	Bullish	Bullish
Observation	The Sand P 500 and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are bullish. Markets are back at resistance. Looking for a retest of the recent lows soon.
On the Horizon	China – Loan data, Japan – Rate decision, U.K-Budget, Rate decision, Switzerland - Rate decision,  Australia –Employment data, New Zealand – GDP, Canada – CPI, U.S – Retail sales, CPI, FOMC rate decision, U. Mich. Consumer confidence
*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, FXCM
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

The US market and Nifty rallied last week. Signals are bullish for the upcoming week. The markets are back at resistance and are likely to continue major breakdowns in 2016, looking for a retest of the recent lows later in March.  The critical levels to watch are 2040 (up) and 2000 (down) on the S & P and 7600 (up) and 7400 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. You can also check out snapshots of the S and P 500 and Nifty Indices. Love your thoughts and feedback.