About

Ahead of the Curve provides you with analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

Featured post

Time Series Analysis with GRETL

This video shows key time-series analyses techniques such as ARIMA, Granger Causality, Co-integration, and VECM performed via GRETL. Key dia...

Sunday 7 February 2016

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning February 8

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change / Significance
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
1880, -3.10%
Bearish
Bearish
Nifty
7489, -0.98%
Neutral**
Bearish
China Shanghai Index
2764, 0.95%
Bullish
Bullish
Gold
1174, 4.98%
Bullish
Bullish
WTIC Crude
31.00, -8.12%
Bearish
Bearish
Copper
2.09, 1.38%
Bullish
Bullish
Baltic Dry Index
297, -6.31%
Bearish
Bearish
Euro
1.121, 3.45%
Bullish
Bullish
Dollar/Yen
116.89, -3.42%
Bearish
Bearish
Dow Transports
6943, 0.52%
Bullish
Bullish
High Yield (ETF)
32.30, -2.23%
Bearish
Bearish
US 10 year Bond Yield
1.85%, -4.30%
Bullish
Bullish
Nyse Summation Index
-560, 22.80%
Bullish
Neutral
US Vix
23.38, 15.74%
Bearish
Bearish
20 DMA, S and P 500
1920, Below
Bearish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
1991, Below
Bearish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2041, Below
Bearish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
7497, Below
Neutral
Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty
7668, Below
Neutral
Bearish
200 DMA, Nifty
8058, Below
Neutral
Bearish
India Vix
18.11, 5.08%
Neutral
Bearish
Dollar/Rupee
67.88, 0.0%
Neutral
Neutral


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications

7

6
Bearish Indications
9
10
Outlook
Bearish
Bearish
Observation
The Sand P 500 and the Nifty fell last week on what looks like another failed QE from Japan. Indicators are bearish. Looking for a retest of the prior lows.
On the Horizon
China - Loan data, Euro zone – German Italian & Euro zone GDP, U.S – Retail sales, U. Michigan confidence data
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, FXCM
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral


The US market and Nifty fell last week. Signals are bearish for the upcoming week. The markets are in crash mode and are likely to continue major breakdowns in 2016, looking for a retest of the recent lows. The critical levels to watch are 1900 (up) and 1860 (down) on the S & P and 7500 (up) and 7400 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. You can also check out snapshots of the S and P 500 and Nifty Indices. Love your thoughts and feedback.

Thursday 4 February 2016

Interesting Market News and Views from Global Financial Markets-15

1) Dudley's Dovish Declaration Develops into a Deluge of Dollar Disposal

It’s been a disastrous day for the world’s reserve currency: the US Dollar Index is trading down by over 1.5% to a new 3-month low near 97.00 and the greenback is falling against every one of her major rivals.

2) Budget to Decide Market Direction: Ramesh Damani - NDTV

Ramesh Damani, member of the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE), expects the upcoming union budget to decide the fate of stock markets in the medium term.

3) Wednesday Report... Inflection Points Galore | Rambus Chartology | Safehaven.com

There is alot of action going on this week in all the different areas of the markets. The PM complex has been rallying, the US dollar tanking today and the stock markets trying to make up their mind which way they want to go ...

4) (DJI), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (ETF:DIA) - The Dow Just Did Something It's Only Done 17 Times In 70 Years

The Dow Jones Industrial Average just alternated 1% moves up and down for 4 days in a row – just the 17th such stretch in the last 70 years. The stock ...

5) The Next Generational Bust Is Coming, Stock Market 70% Collapse :: The Market Oracle :: Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting Free Website

The Next Generational Bust Is Coming, Stock Market 70% Collapse :: The Market Oracle :: Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting Free Website

6) Short term rally over, not ruling out a 1000 point decline in Nifty | Aditya Trading Solutions | ATS Research | Equity Indices | Nifty | Indian Stock Markets - Aditya Trading Solutions : IndiaNotes...

On 01 Feb'16, market made a high of 7600.45 & on the consecutive days, we have been seeing continuous weakness.

Stock Market News

Amazon Deals

World Indices


Live World Indices are powered by Investing.com

Market Insight

My Favorite Books

  • The Intelligent Investor
  • Liars Poker
  • One up on Wall Street
  • Beating the Street
  • Remniscience of a stock operator

See Our Pins

Trading Ideas

Forex Insight

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar >> Add to your site

India Market Insight

My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)

Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.