About

Ahead of the Curve provides you with analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Time Series Analysis with GRETL

This video shows key time-series analyses techniques such as ARIMA, Granger Causality, Co-integration, and VECM performed via GRETL. Key dia...

Showing posts with label recession. Show all posts
Showing posts with label recession. Show all posts

Tuesday 17 November 2015

Interesting Market News and Views from Global Financial Markets-7

1) Why terrorism has a limited impact on markets - The Economist (blog)

One-off attacks merely shift economic activity from one period to another; long-term campaigns are another matter"

2)Japan's Stock Market Shrugs Off Recession Worries - Bloomberg

If Japan’s economy is in trouble, you wouldn’t know it from the stock market."

3) How the Stench of Deflation Fouls the Market Air - Investorplace.com

Deciding how the economy will react to an expected rate hike is difficult. Here's how we can invest while waiting for the Fed's details"





4) Investing For Income: Combining Preferred Shares With Bond ETFs - Seeking Alpha

Preferred shares can carry call risk or may have no final maturity.Investors can plan for the long-term yield from the shares, accounting for default risk, and avoid shares that trade at premiums to c..."



5) Putting Einstein to work for your investing future - MarketWatch

No matter what your age, or how much or little money you have, you can put one of Albert Einstein's insights to work for you. Compound interest, which was famously cited by Einstein as one of the wonders of the world."

6) Jim Cramer: Why the Fed Is the Stock Market's Enemy Right Now - TheStreet.com

With heighten speculation the Fed will raise rates in December, Cramer weighs in on why the Fed is the market's adversary."





Tuesday 23 June 2015

The Very Scary Rising Wedge on the US Stock Market S and P 500 Index

This is a chart originally highlighted on Stocktwits.com, the rising wedge on the S and P 500 with eerie parallels to 2000 and 2008. What is worth noting here is the current rising wedge is much bigger than that observed in 2000 or 2008. The consequences could be severe as and when the break occurs and could trigger a major bear market:

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Tuesday 7 October 2014

Are we staring down at the great depression of the 21 st century?

Some key Indicators are painting a tell tale sign of another great depression:
Lets take a look at a few charts courtesy yahoo finance and marketwatch.com:
1) Despite all the talk of interest rates going up from a phase out of the FED's #QE policies bond prices have moved up with yields about to head down in a big way:
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Treasury Yield 30 Years (^TYX)
2) The baltic dry index (#bdi) despite its recent rally is over 95% below its all time peak it hit in 2008. Global shipping woes despite a so called economic recovery!
us stock market DMS Baltic Index I (DBIAX)

3) #Gold continues to spiral down and is well over 40% down from its all time high's:



4) The #dollar is becoming king again as the #Euro collapses which could result in the liquidation of carry trades:

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5) #Oil has absolutely collapsed down over 50% from highs it hit just a year ago:


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These developments taken together with ongoing bear markets in several key asset classes , new lows for the velocity of money and surging margin debt make the great depression (#greatdep) of the 21 st century inevitable.

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My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)

Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.