|
Indicator
|
Weekly
Level / Change
|
Implication
for
S
& P 500
|
Implication
for Nifty*
|
|
S
& P 500
|
3044, 3.01%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
|
Nifty
|
9580, 5.99%
|
Neutral
**
|
Bullish
|
|
China
Shanghai Index
|
2852, 1.37%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
|
Gold
|
1752, 1.22%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
|
WTIC
Crude
|
35.34,
7.42%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
|
Copper
|
2.44, 1.88%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
|
Baltic
Dry Index
|
489, -1.81%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
|
Euro
|
1.1104,
1.85%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
|
Dollar/Yen
|
107.83,
0.19%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
|
Dow
Transports
|
8970, 5.90%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
|
High
Yield (Bond ETF)
|
101.99,
1.70%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
|
US 10
year Bond Yield
|
0.65%,
-0.67%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
|
Nyse
Summation Index
|
445, 126.47%
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
|
US Vix
|
27.51,
-2.31%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
|
Skew
|
132
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
|
20
DMA, S and P 500
|
2920, Above
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
|
50
DMA, S and P 500
|
2773, Above
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
|
200
DMA, S and P 500
|
3002, Above
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
|
20
DMA, Nifty
|
9225, Above
|
Neutral
|
Bullish
|
|
50
DMA, Nifty
|
8986, Above
|
Neutral
|
Bullish
|
|
200
DMA, Nifty
|
10982,
Below
|
Neutral
|
Bearish
|
|
S
& P 500 P/E
|
21.83
|
Bearish
|
Neutral
|
|
Nifty
P/E
|
22.38
|
Neutral
|
Bearish
|
|
India
Vix
|
30.22,
-6.66%
|
Neutral
|
Bullish
|
|
Dollar/Rupee
|
75.61,
-0.45%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
|
Overall
|
S
& P 500
|
Nifty
|
|
|
Bullish
Indications
|
14
|
14
|
|
|
Bearish
Indications
|
2
|
3
|
|
|
Outlook
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
|
|
Observation
|
The S
and P and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are bullish for the week.
The
markets have begun a great depression
style collapse. Watch those stops.
|
||
|
On the
Horizon
|
Eurozone
– German Employment data, ECB rate decision, US – Employment data
|
||
|
*Nifty
|
India’s
Benchmark Stock Market Index
|
||
|
Raw
Data
|
Courtesy
Stock charts, investing.com, multpl.com, NSE
|
||
|
**Neutral
|
Changes
less than 0.5% are considered neutral
|
The S and P 500 and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators
are bullish for the coming week. It’s back to mid Feb
euphoria for the indices and a March style repeat awaits. The markets are very
close to an epic melt down and the SPX is headed to 1800 in the medium term. It is overvalued, overbought and out
of touch with economic realities. Long
term, the epic meltdown is set to
continue resulting in a 5 year plus bear market with lot lower levels maybe as
low as 800 on the S and P. QE
forever from the FED is about to trigger the deflationary collapse of the
century and we have made a major top in global equity markets. The market is looking like the short of a life time with non-conformations from the transports,
other global indices and commodities. High valuations continue. The breakdown
in Crude and the Euro is a precursor to yet another massive drop in the S and P
500. The recent global virus epidemic (black
swan) is likely to dent global GDP significantly and usher in a depression much faster than most think.
The trend has changed from bullish to bearish and the markets are getting smashed by a strong dollar. Looking for
significant under performance in the Nifty going forward on rapidly
deteriorating macros. A 5 year
deflationary wave has started in key asset classes like the Euro, stocks
and commodities amidst a number of bearish divergences and over
stretched valuations. We are entering a multi-year great depression. The markets are still trading well
over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which
corrections usually result. Tail risk has been very high off late as the yield curve inverts into a recession. The
critical levels to watch for the week
are 3060 (up) and 3030 (down) on the S & P 500 and 9650 (up) and 9500
(down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above
levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out
last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.
