|
Indicator
|
Weekly
Level / Change
|
Implication
for
S
& P 500
|
Implication
for Nifty*
|
|
S
& P 500
|
2542, 10.26%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
|
Nifty
|
8660, -0.97%
|
Neutral
**
|
Bearish
|
|
China
Shanghai Index
|
2772, 0.97%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
|
Gold
|
1631, 9.83%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
|
WTIC Crude
|
21.84,
-2.63%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
|
Copper
|
2.17, 0.02%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
|
Baltic
Dry Index
|
556, -11.04%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
|
Euro
|
1.1143,
4.19%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
|
Dollar/Yen
|
107.94,
-2.59%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
|
Dow
Transports
|
7699, 12.60%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
|
High Yield
(Bond)
|
94.38,
9.57%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
|
US 10
year Bond Yield
|
0.68%,
-14.74%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
|
Nyse
Summation Index
|
-1120,
5.32%
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
|
US Vix
|
65.54,
-0.70%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
|
Skew
|
117
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
|
20
DMA, S and P 500
|
2657, Below
|
Bearish
|
Neutral
|
|
50
DMA, S and P 500
|
3033, Below
|
Bearish
|
Neutral
|
|
200
DMA, S and P 500
|
3030, Below
|
Bearish
|
Neutral
|
|
20
DMA, Nifty
|
9613, Below
|
Neutral
|
Bearish
|
|
50
DMA, Nifty
|
11081,
Below
|
Neutral
|
Bearish
|
|
200
DMA, Nifty
|
11483,
Below
|
Neutral
|
Bearish
|
|
S
& P 500 P/E
|
19.12
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
|
Nifty
P/E
|
19.52
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
|
India
Vix
|
70.39,
4.90%
|
Neutral
|
Bearish
|
|
Dollar/Rupee
|
75.48,
0.10%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
|
Overall
|
S
& P 500
|
Nifty
|
|
|
Bullish
Indications
|
9
|
8
|
|
|
Bearish
Indications
|
6
|
8
|
|
|
Outlook
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
|
|
Observation
|
The S
and P 500 was up and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are mixed for the
week.
The
markets have begun a great depression
style collapse. Watch those stops.
|
||
|
On the
Horizon
|
US – Employment
data, UK – GDP, Eurozone – German employment data,
CPI, India – RBI rate decision
|
||
|
*Nifty
|
India’s
Benchmark Stock Market Index
|
||
|
Raw
Data
|
Courtesy
Stock charts, investing.com, multpl.com, NSE
|
||
|
**Neutral
|
Changes
less than 0.5% are considered neutral
|
The S and P rebounded and the Nifty fell last week.
Indicators are mixed for the coming week. The rally in the S & P is likely to
extend to 2740 following which it could crash
to 1800. Long term, the epic meltdown is set to continue
resulting in a 5 year plus bear market. QE forever from the FED is about to trigger the deflationary collapse
of the century and we have made a major top in global equity markets. The
market is looking like the short of a life time with
non-conformations from the transports, other global indices and commodities. Insane
valuations continue. The breakdown in Crude and the Euro was a precursor to a massive
drop in the S and P 500. The recent global virus epidemic (black swan) is likely to dent global
GDP significantly and usher in a recession
much faster than most think. The trend has changed from bullish to bearish and
the markets are getting smashed by a strong
dollar. Looking for significant under performance in the Nifty going
forward on rapidly deteriorating macros. A 5
year deflationary wave has started in key asset classes like the Euro,
stocks and commodities. We are entering a multi-year great
depression. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations
above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. Tail risk
has been very high off late as the yield
curve inverts into a recession. The critical levels to watch for the week are 2555 (up) and 2530
(down) on the S & P 500 and 8750 (up) and 8600 (down) on
the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger
the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.