|
Indicator
|
Weekly
Level / Change
|
Implication
for
S
& P 500
|
Implication
for Nifty*
|
|
S
& P 500
|
3296, -1.03%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
|
Nifty
|
12248,
-0.84%
|
Neutral
**
|
Bearish
|
|
China
Shanghai Index
|
2977, -3.85%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
|
Gold
|
1571, 1.24%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
|
WTIC Crude
|
54.20,
-9.65%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
|
Copper
|
2.68, -6.93%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
|
Baltic
Dry Index
|
557, -26.13%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
|
Euro
|
1.1025,-
0.55%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
|
Dollar/Yen
|
109.28,
-1.11%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
|
Dow
Transports
|
11060,
-1.94%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
|
High Yield
(Bond)
|
109.30,
-0.79%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
|
US 10
year Bond Yield
|
1.69%,
-9.99%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
|
Nyse
Summation Index
|
952, -4.90%
|
Bearish
|
Neutral
|
|
US Vix
|
14.56,
20.33%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
|
Skew
|
127
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
|
20
DMA, S and P 500
|
3274, Above
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
|
50
DMA, S and P 500
|
3196, Above
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
|
200
DMA, S and P 500
|
3003, Above
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
|
20
DMA, Nifty
|
12217,
Above
|
Neutral
|
Bullish
|
|
50
DMA, Nifty
|
12119,
Above
|
Neutral
|
Bullish
|
|
200
DMA, Nifty
|
11645,
Above
|
Neutral
|
Bullish
|
|
S
& P 500 P/E
|
24.80
|
Bearish
|
Neutral
|
|
Nifty
P/E
|
28.10
|
Neutral
|
Bearish
|
|
India
Vix
|
15.56,
0.97%
|
Neutral
|
Bearish
|
|
Dollar/Rupee
|
71.33,
0.41%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
|
Overall
|
S
& P 500
|
Nifty
|
|
|
Bullish
Indications
|
5
|
5
|
|
|
Bearish
Indications
|
12
|
13
|
|
|
Outlook
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
|
|
Observation
|
The S
and P 500 and the Nifty were down last week. Indicators are bearish for the
week.
The
markets are on the verge of a great depression
style collapse. Watch those stops.
|
||
|
On the
Horizon
|
Euro Zone
– German employment data, CPI, UK
– BOE rate decision, US – FOMC
rate decision, GDP, India – Union
Budget 2020
|
||
|
*Nifty
|
India’s
Benchmark Stock Market Index
|
||
|
Raw
Data
|
Courtesy
Stock charts, investing.com, multpl.com, NSE
|
||
|
**Neutral
|
Changes
less than 0.5% are considered neutral
|
The S and P 500 and the Nifty were down last week. Indicators are bearish for the upcoming week. Long term, QE forever from the FED is about to trigger
the deflationary collapse of the century and we are likely making another major
top in global equity markets. The market is looking like the short of a
life time with non-conformations from the transports, other global indices
and commodities. Insane valuations continue. The breakdown in crude is a likely
a precursor to a massive drop in the S and P 500. The trend is about to change
from bullish to bearish and the markets are about to get smashed by a strong dollar. Looking for significant under
performance in the Nifty going forward on rapidly deteriorating macros. A 5 year deflationary wave is about to
start in key asset classes like the Euro, stocks and commodities amidst a
number of bearish divergences and over stretched valuations. We are on the verge of
a multi-year great depression. The
markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term
averages from which corrections usually result. Tail risk has been very high
off late as the yield curve inverts.
The critical levels to watch for the week
are 3310 (up) and 3285 (down) on the S & P 500 and 12350 (up) and 12150
(down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above
levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out
last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.
