|
Indicator
|
Weekly
Level / Change
|
Implication
for
S
& P 500
|
Implication
for Nifty*
|
|
S
& P 500
|
2940, 1.20%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
|
Nifty
|
11755,
0.02%
|
Neutral
**
|
Neutral
|
|
China
Shanghai Index
|
3086, -5.64%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
|
Gold
|
1288, 0.74%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
|
WTIC Crude
|
62.84,
-1.81%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
|
Copper
|
2.89, -1.06%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
|
Baltic
Dry Index
|
869, 10.00%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
|
Euro
|
1.1154,
-0.84%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
|
Dollar/Yen
|
111.58,
-0.30%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
|
Dow
Transports
|
10881,
-0.97%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
|
High
Yield (ETF)
|
36.25,
0.30%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
|
US 10
year Bond Yield
|
2.50%,
-2.33%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
|
Nyse
Summation Index
|
971, -7.30%
|
Bearish
|
Neutral
|
|
US Vix
|
12.73,
5.29%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
|
Skew
|
126
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
|
20
DMA, S and P 500
|
2896, Above
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
|
50 DMA,
S and P 500
|
2836, Above
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
|
200
DMA, S and P 500
|
2771, Above
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
|
20
DMA, Nifty
|
11655,
Above
|
Neutral
|
Bullish
|
|
50
DMA, Nifty
|
11298,
Above
|
Neutral
|
Bullish
|
|
200
DMA, Nifty
|
11008,
Above
|
Neutral
|
Bullish
|
|
India
Vix
|
21.72,
-4.48%
|
Neutral
|
Bullish
|
|
Dollar/Rupee
|
69.85,
0.69%
|
Neutral
|
Bearish
|
|
Overall
|
S
& P 500
|
Nifty
|
|
|
Bullish
Indications
|
7
|
8
|
|
|
Bearish
Indications
|
7
|
7
|
|
|
Outlook
|
Neutral
|
Bullish
|
|
|
Observation
|
The S
and P 500 rallied and the Nifty was unchanged last week. Indicators are mixed
for the week.
The
markets are on the verge of a great depression
style collapse. Watch those stops.
|
||
|
On the
Horizon
|
US – FOMC rate decision, Employment
data, Euro Zone – German employment data, CPI, UK – BOE rate
decision
|
||
|
*Nifty
|
India’s
Benchmark Stock Market Index
|
||
|
Raw
Data
|
Courtesy
Stock charts, investing.com
|
||
|
**Neutral
|
Changes
less than 0.5% are considered neutral
|
The S and P 500 rallied and the Nifty was unchanged last
week. Indicators are mixed for the upcoming week. QE forever from the FED is about to trigger
the deflationary collapse of the century and we are very close to another top
in global equity markets. The market has rallied 600 points from the
December lows but a 5 year bear market
is in the making. The trend is changing from bullish to bearish. Looking
for significant under performance in the Nifty going forward on rapidly
deteriorating macros. The India vix has far exceeded the US vix suggesting
there may be a sudden catch up on the downside for the Indian market in 2019. A
5 year deflationary wave is about to
start in key asset classes like the Euro, stocks and commodities amidst a
number of bearish divergences and Hindenburg omens. We are on the verge of a multi-year great depression. The markets are still trading well
over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which
corrections usually result. Tail risk has been very high off late as the yield curve inverts. The critical
levels to watch for the week are 2950
(up) and 2930 (down) on the S & P 500 and 11850 (up) and 11650 (down) on
the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger
the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for
a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.
