Indicator
|
Weekly
Level / Change
|
Implication
for
S
& P 500
|
Implication
for Nifty*
|
S
& P 500
|
2747, 0.55%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Nifty
|
10491, 0.37%
|
Neutral
**
|
Neutral
|
China
Shanghai Index
|
3289, 2.81%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Gold
|
1330, -1.91%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
WTIC
Crude
|
63.55, 3.25%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Copper
|
3.21, -1.11%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Baltic
Dry Index
|
1167, 7.16%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Euro
|
1.2295, -0.89%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Dollar/Yen
|
106.82, 0.56%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Dow
Transports
|
10579, 0.73%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
High
Yield (ETF)
|
36.26, -0.17%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
US
10 year Bond Yield
|
2.87%, -0.21%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
Nyse
Summation Index
|
-43, 48.88%
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
US
Vix
|
16.49, -15.26%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Skew
|
139
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
20
DMA, S and P 500
|
2727, Above
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
50
DMA, S and P 500
|
2731, Above
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
200
DMA, S and P 500
|
2553, Above
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
20
DMA, Nifty
|
10639, Below
|
Neutral
|
Bearish
|
50
DMA, Nifty
|
10610, Below
|
Neutral
|
Bearish
|
200
DMA, Nifty
|
10098, Above
|
Neutral
|
Bullish
|
India
Vix
|
14.20, -13.28%
|
Neutral
|
Bullish
|
Dollar/Rupee
|
64.84, 0.69%
|
Neutral
|
Bearish
|
Overall
|
S
& P 500
|
Nifty
|
|
Bullish
Indications
|
11
|
9
|
|
Bearish
Indications
|
3
|
6
|
|
Outlook
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
|
Observation
|
The
S and P 500 and the Nifty were up slightly last week. Indicators are bullish.
The
markets have made important tops. Time to watch those stops.
|
||
On
the Horizon
|
China – PMI’s,
Euro Zone – German employment data,
German PMI, CPI, UK – PMI’s, U.S – Oil inventories, GDP, Powell
speech, Durable goods, Consumer confidence, Home sales, ISM PMI, Employment
data, Canada – GDP
|
||
*Nifty
|
India’s
Benchmark Stock Market Index
|
||
Raw
Data
|
Courtesy
Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
|
||
**Neutral
|
Changes less than 0.5% are considered
neutral
|
Image from marketwatch.com
The S and
P 500 and the Nifty moved up slightly last week. Indicators are bullish for the
upcoming week. The recent rally has been supported by excessive fear which
continues to be at elevated levels. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet
to be priced in fully. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard
deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result.
Divergences in high yield, transports and surging bond yields are flashing
warning signs. An interest rate shock can’t be ruled out. Indian market
volatility is below US market volatility so there is complacency and some catch
up left on the down side. The critical levels to watch are 2760 (up) and 2735 (down) on the S & P and 10550 (up) and
10400 (down) on the Nifty. A
significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above
markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.